The 2026 Kraków mayoral election, scheduled for a first round on 27 September following the May recall referendum that removed Civic Coalition mayor Aleksander Miszalski, features a fragmented field of over two dozen registered candidates from KO, PiS, independents, and smaller groupings. This structure, combined with the short campaign window after the July announcement of the date, has kept implied probabilities clustered without a dominant frontrunner. Traders reflect uncertainty over first-round vote splitting and the potential for a runoff, with recent candidate launches and party endorsements failing to produce clear separation. Key variables that could consolidate support include turnout patterns among Kraków’s urban and suburban voters, coalition signals ahead of any second round, and late developments in local policy debates on housing, transport, and EU-funded projects. Historical precedent for Polish local races shows that early polling leads often narrow once full candidate lists and media scrutiny intensify.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Marian Banaś 34%
達莉亞·高塞克-波皮奧韋克 33%
揚·霍夫曼 33%
瑪爾塔·拉圖申斯卡 33%
Marian Banaś
34%
達莉亞·高塞克-波皮奧韋克
33%
揚·霍夫曼
33%
瑪爾塔·拉圖申斯卡
33%
Łukasz Wantuch
33%
瑪麗安娜·舒賴伯
33%
盧卡什·吉巴拉
33%
Michał Drewnicki
33%
莫妮卡‧皮翁特科夫斯卡
33%
巴爾托什·博欽查克
33%
米哈乌·克利梅克
33%
亞歷珊德拉·奧夫察
33%
Paweł Śliz
33%
拉法乌·索尼克
33%
拉法烏·科馬雷維奇
33%
斯拉沃米爾·皮特爾茲克
33%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
33%
Marian Banaś 34%
達莉亞·高塞克-波皮奧韋克 33%
揚·霍夫曼 33%
瑪爾塔·拉圖申斯卡 33%
Marian Banaś
34%
達莉亞·高塞克-波皮奧韋克
33%
揚·霍夫曼
33%
瑪爾塔·拉圖申斯卡
33%
Łukasz Wantuch
33%
瑪麗安娜·舒賴伯
33%
盧卡什·吉巴拉
33%
Michał Drewnicki
33%
莫妮卡‧皮翁特科夫斯卡
33%
巴爾托什·博欽查克
33%
米哈乌·克利梅克
33%
亞歷珊德拉·奧夫察
33%
Paweł Śliz
33%
拉法乌·索尼克
33%
拉法烏·科馬雷維奇
33%
斯拉沃米爾·皮特爾茲克
33%
Grażyna Zofia Świat
33%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
市場開放時間： Aug 6, 2026, 8:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who becomes the next mayor of Kraków as a result of this election.
Temporary, interim, or placeholder mayors appointed before the election will not be considered.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to “Other.”
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from the City of Kraków, including its election office and Municipal Electoral Commission.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Kraków mayoral election, scheduled for a first round on 27 September following the May recall referendum that removed Civic Coalition mayor Aleksander Miszalski, features a fragmented field of over two dozen registered candidates from KO, PiS, independents, and smaller groupings. This structure, combined with the short campaign window after the July announcement of the date, has kept implied probabilities clustered without a dominant frontrunner. Traders reflect uncertainty over first-round vote splitting and the potential for a runoff, with recent candidate launches and party endorsements failing to produce clear separation. Key variables that could consolidate support include turnout patterns among Kraków’s urban and suburban voters, coalition signals ahead of any second round, and late developments in local policy debates on housing, transport, and EU-funded projects. Historical precedent for Polish local races shows that early polling leads often narrow once full candidate lists and media scrutiny intensify.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions