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icon for Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？

Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？

icon for Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？

Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？

是

31% 機率
Polymarket

$52,562 交易量

是

31% 機率
Polymarket

$52,562 交易量

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The current 81.7% market-implied probability for “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 reflects the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the high evidentiary bar for sexual assault cases.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation, following earlier withdrawn charges in 2019 and 2023. His first court appearance occurred in January 2026, yet no trial date has been set as of mid-2026, with defense counsel maintaining a full denial and plans to contest the case. Traders appear to price in typical delays, backlogs, and the possibility of withdrawal or plea without conviction, consistent with historical patterns for similar allegations against influencers. Upcoming catalysts include disclosure and pretrial motions that could further extend timelines.

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$52,562
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...
Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.**The current 81.7% market-implied probability for “No” on Justin Aguiar’s conviction before 2027 reflects the slow pace of Canadian criminal proceedings and the high evidentiary bar for sexual assault cases.** Aguiar, the Toronto dating coach and content creator known as Justin Marc, was charged in November 2025 with one count stemming from an August 2024 allegation, following earlier withdrawn charges in 2019 and 2023. His first court appearance occurred in January 2026, yet no trial date has been set as of mid-2026, with defense counsel maintaining a full denial and plans to contest the case. Traders appear to price in typical delays, backlogs, and the possibility of withdrawal or plea without conviction, consistent with historical patterns for similar allegations against influencers. Upcoming catalysts include disclosure and pretrial motions that could further extend timelines.

Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.

If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No".

This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market.

The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.Justin Aguiar was recently arrested and charged with sexual assault by the Toronto Police Service after an investigation of an alleged sexual assault in 2024. You can read more about that here: https://www.tps.ca/media-centre/news-releases/64641/. This market will resolve to “Yes” if Aguiar is convicted of the sexual assault offense he is currently charged with by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If this charge ends due to a plea agreement without an admission of guilt, a dismissal, or results in any situation in which no judgment is rendered by a court, this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve according to the first official judgment rendered regarding this charge. Any appeals will have no bearing on the resolution of this market. The primary resolution source will be an official judgment delivered by the ruling court; however, other credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$52,562
結束日期
2027-01-01
市場開放時間
Nov 25, 2025, 7:35 PM ET

結算方

0x65070BE91...

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Frequently Asked Questions

"Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 2 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Justin Aguiar 在 2027 年之前因性侵被定罪嗎？" at 18%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 18¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？" has generated $52.6K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 25, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？," browse the 2 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？" is "Justin Aguiar 在 2027 年之前因性侵被定罪嗎？" at 18%, meaning the market assigns a 18% chance to that outcome. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Justin Aguiar在2027年之前被判犯有性侵犯罪？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.