Recent June hike to 1% has shifted focus to the timing of the next 25-basis-point adjustment amid core CPI readings near 1.8% year-over-year in July and August, supported by yen weakness and services prices. Governor Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate changes remain under consideration at every meeting, including the September 17-18 gathering, have reinforced trader views that tightening could occur before October, favoring a pause at the later date. Economists continue to project gradual normalization roughly every six months, with inflation risks tilted upward yet still below the 2% target after energy subsidies. Market-implied odds reflect this measured path, pricing limited probability of a 25-basis-point move in October absent stronger data. Key near-term catalysts include the September decision and fresh CPI releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$68,546 交易量
$68,546 交易量
2026-10-29
50+ bps decrease
<1%
25 bps decrease
<1%
No change
78%
25 bps increase
20%
50+ bps increase
<1%
No change 78%
25 bps increase 20%
50+ bps increase <1%
25 bps decrease <1%
$68,546 交易量
$68,546 交易量
2026-10-29
50+ bps decrease
$2,805 交易量
<1%
25 bps decrease
$5,438 交易量
<1%
No change
$29,685 交易量
78%
25 bps increase
$23,686 交易量
20%
50+ bps increase
$6,931 交易量
<1%
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June hike to 1% has shifted focus to the timing of the next 25-basis-point adjustment amid core CPI readings near 1.8% year-over-year in July and August, supported by yen weakness and services prices. Governor Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate changes remain under consideration at every meeting, including the September 17-18 gathering, have reinforced trader views that tightening could occur before October, favoring a pause at the later date. Economists continue to project gradual normalization roughly every six months, with inflation risks tilted upward yet still below the 2% target after energy subsidies. Market-implied odds reflect this measured path, pricing limited probability of a 25-basis-point move in October absent stronger data. Key near-term catalysts include the September decision and fresh CPI releases.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ET
交易量
$68,546結束日期
2026-10-30市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETThe Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Recent June hike to 1% has shifted focus to the timing of the next 25-basis-point adjustment amid core CPI readings near 1.8% year-over-year in July and August, supported by yen weakness and services prices. Governor Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate changes remain under consideration at every meeting, including the September 17-18 gathering, have reinforced trader views that tightening could occur before October, favoring a pause at the later date. Economists continue to project gradual normalization roughly every six months, with inflation risks tilted upward yet still below the 2% target after energy subsidies. Market-implied odds reflect this measured path, pricing limited probability of a 25-basis-point move in October absent stronger data. Key near-term catalysts include the September decision and fresh CPI releases.
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm).
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting.
If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$68,546結束日期
2026-10-30市場開放時間
Jul 31, 2026, 7:29 PM ETRecent June hike to 1% has shifted focus to the timing of the next 25-basis-point adjustment amid core CPI readings near 1.8% year-over-year in July and August, supported by yen weakness and services prices. Governor Ueda’s September 2 remarks that rate changes remain under consideration at every meeting, including the September 17-18 gathering, have reinforced trader views that tightening could occur before October, favoring a pause at the later date. Economists continue to project gradual normalization roughly every six months, with inflation risks tilted upward yet still below the 2% target after energy subsidies. Market-implied odds reflect this measured path, pricing limited probability of a 25-basis-point move in October absent stronger data. Key near-term catalysts include the September decision and fresh CPI releases.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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