Persistent inflation, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year in July and core measures near 3.3%, remains the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike to 82%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply shocks, resilient August payroll gains of 162,000, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% have reinforced trader views that the Fed must tighten to restore its 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole and in subsequent communications have aligned with this pricing, as futures embed expectations of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% range. The upcoming CPI and any final pre-meeting data releases represent the last major catalysts before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHike
82% khả năng
$10,636 KL.
$10,636 KL.
Dec 31, 2028
Hike
82% khả năng
$10,636 KL.
$10,636 KL.
Dec 31, 2028
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year in July and core measures near 3.3%, remains the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike to 82%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply shocks, resilient August payroll gains of 162,000, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% have reinforced trader views that the Fed must tighten to restore its 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole and in subsequent communications have aligned with this pricing, as futures embed expectations of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% range. The upcoming CPI and any final pre-meeting data releases represent the last major catalysts before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Thị trường mở: Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ET
Khối lượng
$10,636Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2028Thị trường mở
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htmPersistent inflation, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year in July and core measures near 3.3%, remains the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike to 82%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply shocks, resilient August payroll gains of 162,000, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% have reinforced trader views that the Fed must tighten to restore its 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole and in subsequent communications have aligned with this pricing, as futures embed expectations of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% range. The upcoming CPI and any final pre-meeting data releases represent the last major catalysts before resolution.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds rate. The decisions on the target federal funds rate are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
This market will resolve to “Hike” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that increases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
This market will resolve to “Cut” if the first FOMC decision to change the upper bound of the target federal funds rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET is one that decreases the specified rate compared to the level it was prior to the respective meeting.
If the FOMC announces no decision changing the specified rate between market creation and December 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “50-50”.
Any decision changing the specified rate within the specified timeframe, including emergency and non-scheduled decisions, will qualify.
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meetings:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm
Khối lượng
$10,636Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2028Thị trường mở
Jul 14, 2026, 12:15 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation, with the PCE price index at 3.7% year-over-year in July and core measures near 3.3%, remains the dominant driver pushing market-implied odds of a September 15-16 FOMC rate hike to 82%. Elevated energy prices tied to Middle East supply shocks, resilient August payroll gains of 162,000, and an unemployment rate holding at 4.1% have reinforced trader views that the Fed must tighten to restore its 2% target. Chair Kevin Warsh’s recent hawkish signals at Jackson Hole and in subsequent communications have aligned with this pricing, as futures embed expectations of a 25-basis-point increase from the current 3.50-3.75% range. The upcoming CPI and any final pre-meeting data releases represent the last major catalysts before resolution.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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