The 25th Knesset dissolved in July 2026 after completing its full term, setting legislative elections for October 27. Polls show the anti-Netanyahu bloc hovering near or just above the 61-seat majority threshold, with Yashar and Together parties leading Likud but facing challenges in assembling a stable coalition amid fragmented blocs and resistance to Haredi or Arab party inclusion. New Knesset swearing-in is expected in mid-November, leaving roughly six weeks for negotiations before the December 31 cutoff. Israeli coalition formation has historically required extended talks, sometimes spanning months, especially in close races that risk minority governments or renewed deadlock. Traders price the implied probability of a successful confidence vote by year-end at around 40 percent for Yes, reflecting the narrow post-election window and structural barriers to rapid government constitution.