**The US-Saudi 123 nuclear cooperation agreement, signed in July 2026, was transmitted to Congress on August 25 for the required 90-day review period under the Atomic Energy Act.** Unless lawmakers pass a joint resolution of disapproval, it could take effect without an affirmative vote. However, President Trump has publicly conditioned final approval on Saudi Arabia joining the Abraham Accords and normalizing relations with Israel—a step Riyadh has linked to an irreversible path toward Palestinian statehood, a demand that remains unresolved amid ongoing regional diplomacy and the US-Iran conflict. The agreement enables US firms to support Saudi civilian nuclear infrastructure, including potential reactor construction and a future joint study on enrichment viability, while incorporating bilateral safeguards. Yet the Israel precondition, combined with the abbreviated calendar for completing the congressional process and any follow-on steps before year-end, has led traders to assign a 75.5% probability that the deal will not enter into force in 2026. No major breakthroughs on the normalization linkage have occurred in recent weeks.