Jess Wilson, Liberal leader and opposition head since late 2025, leads the market at 64.5% as traders price in consistent Coalition advantages ahead of the November 28, 2026 Victorian state election. Recent DemosAU and other polling shows the Coalition ahead of Labor 55-45 on two-party preferred, with Wilson preferred premier over Ben Carroll by double-digit margins in several surveys. Carroll assumed the premiership in a late-July leadership change after Jacinta Allan resigned amid caucus pressure and weak results, launching a royal commission into construction sector issues as an immediate reset. A fragmented primary vote near 25-30% each for Labor, Coalition, and One Nation raises prospects of preference flows and a possible hung parliament, though Wilson’s platform on justice reforms, bail changes, housing supply, and cost-of-living measures has sustained momentum. Lower probabilities for Carroll, Gabrielle Williams, Warren Pickering, and others reflect these structural polling trends and limited recent catalysts for shifts.