Netanyahu publicly confirmed in late July 2026 that he will contest the October 27 Knesset election as Likud leader, despite recent polls showing his coalition at 47-52 seats and trailing opposition figures such as Gadi Eisenkot’s Yashar party in head-to-head preference. Voter fatigue from the Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran conflicts, disputes over ultra-Orthodox exemptions, and lingering effects of prior judicial reform debates continue to pressure his position. Likud’s candidate primaries concluded in mid-August with Netanyahu securing greater control over the slate, while coalition partners weigh early dissolution risks. Traders monitor these internal party dynamics, security developments, and any shifts in coalition stability ahead of the fixed election date for signals on withdrawal probability.