Latest National Weather Service and private model guidance points to overnight lows of 80–83°F in Miami on July 22 amid typical subtropical humidity, light southerly flow, and limited radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies. These conditions suppress the usual nocturnal drop below 78°F that occurs with clearer, drier air masses. Ensemble spreads remain narrow, yet small timing differences in cloud cover or sea-breeze effects could shift the minimum across the 80–81°F versus 82–83°F thresholds. With no tropical systems or cold fronts approaching, traders assign the highest implied probabilities to the upper-70s-to-low-80s range while discounting sub-76°F outcomes that would require atypical cooling.