Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtIran successfully targets shipping on...?
Iran successfully targets shipping on...?
$185,989 KL.
Aug 24, 2026
August 17
51%
August 18
38%
August 23
3%
August 24
48%
August 25
37%
August 26
24%
August 27
35%
August 28
25%
August 29
19%
August 30
24%
August 31
25%
$185,989 KL.
August 17
$5,546 KL.
51%
August 18
$2,542 KL.
38%
August 23
$4,030 KL.
3%
August 24
$10,406 KL.
48%
August 25
$901 KL.
37%
August 26
$1,173 KL.
24%
August 27
$558 KL.
35%
August 28
$1,517 KL.
25%
August 29
$2,759 KL.
19%
August 30
$834 KL.
24%
August 31
$3,669 KL.
25%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Thị trường mở: Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ET
Khối lượng
$185,989Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date IRST (UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory or been carried out by Iranian forces will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Seize control refers to Iranian forces forcefully boarding and taking control of a commercial ship.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If a kinetic incident occurs, but, on the specified date, 11:59 PM IRST, material ambiguity remains as to the exact timing of the incident, or whether the incident can be attributed to Iran, this market may remain open for an additional 3 calendar days, IRST. If, at such time, the attribution or timing of the incident still cannot be confirmed, this market will resolve to “No”.
Khối lượng
$185,989Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 29, 2026, 3:11 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has conducted multiple strikes and seizures against commercial vessels in the Strait of Hormuz since the June U.S.-Iran memorandum expired in mid-August, including a fatal August 17-18 projectile attack on the bulk carrier Minoan Dignity and the boarding and detention of the tanker Amara. On August 24 Iran blacklisted 45 tankers for alleged rule violations and threatened fines, detention, or cargo confiscation, while Iran-backed Houthi forces struck the Saudi VLCC Amzan in the Red Sea. These actions coincide with a reinstated U.S. blockade, renewed sanctions, and naval interdictions that have redirected or disabled dozens of vessels. Trader assessments reflect the persistent pattern of direct and proxy maritime enforcement, periodic U.S. retaliation, and the resulting disruption to oil and LNG transits through key chokepoints.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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