**Recent diplomatic developments explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian agreement to end uranium enrichment by December 31.** Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025–2026, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day negotiation window (ending around mid-August) focused on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues. The interim text calls for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but defers binding limits on enrichment itself to a final deal, with Washington seeking a permanent ban or long suspension and Tehran resisting. Public disputes quickly emerged over IAEA inspector access to damaged facilities, with Iranian officials denying new commitments and limiting visits to non-sensitive sites. As of late August 2026, no final accord has materialized, enrichment remains halted at struck sites due to prior damage rather than agreement, and Iran shows signs of preserving capabilities through underground transfers and repairs. These verification gaps, mismatched negotiating positions, and unresolved stockpile questions sustain the high implied probability that no binding commitment to end enrichment will be reached by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật14% khả năng
$1,671,213 KL.
$1,671,213 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
14% khả năng
$1,671,213 KL.
$1,671,213 KL.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Recent diplomatic developments explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian agreement to end uranium enrichment by December 31.**
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025–2026, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day negotiation window (ending around mid-August) focused on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues. The interim text calls for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but defers binding limits on enrichment itself to a final deal, with Washington seeking a permanent ban or long suspension and Tehran resisting. Public disputes quickly emerged over IAEA inspector access to damaged facilities, with Iranian officials denying new commitments and limiting visits to non-sensitive sites.
As of late August 2026, no final accord has materialized, enrichment remains halted at struck sites due to prior damage rather than agreement, and Iran shows signs of preserving capabilities through underground transfers and repairs. These verification gaps, mismatched negotiating positions, and unresolved stockpile questions sustain the high implied probability that no binding commitment to end enrichment will be reached by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Khối lượng
$1,671,213Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Recent diplomatic developments explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian agreement to end uranium enrichment by December 31.**
Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025–2026, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day negotiation window (ending around mid-August) focused on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues. The interim text calls for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but defers binding limits on enrichment itself to a final deal, with Washington seeking a permanent ban or long suspension and Tehran resisting. Public disputes quickly emerged over IAEA inspector access to damaged facilities, with Iranian officials denying new commitments and limiting visits to non-sensitive sites.
As of late August 2026, no final accord has materialized, enrichment remains halted at struck sites due to prior damage rather than agreement, and Iran shows signs of preserving capabilities through underground transfers and repairs. These verification gaps, mismatched negotiating positions, and unresolved stockpile questions sustain the high implied probability that no binding commitment to end enrichment will be reached by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Khối lượng
$1,671,213Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Recent diplomatic developments explain the strong trader consensus against an Iranian agreement to end uranium enrichment by December 31.** Following U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iranian nuclear sites in 2025–2026, a June 2026 U.S.-Iran memorandum of understanding launched a 60-day negotiation window (ending around mid-August) focused on sanctions relief, the Strait of Hormuz, and nuclear issues. The interim text calls for IAEA-supervised down-blending of Iran’s ~440 kg stockpile of 60% enriched uranium but defers binding limits on enrichment itself to a final deal, with Washington seeking a permanent ban or long suspension and Tehran resisting. Public disputes quickly emerged over IAEA inspector access to damaged facilities, with Iranian officials denying new commitments and limiting visits to non-sensitive sites. As of late August 2026, no final accord has materialized, enrichment remains halted at struck sites due to prior damage rather than agreement, and Iran shows signs of preserving capabilities through underground transfers and repairs. These verification gaps, mismatched negotiating positions, and unresolved stockpile questions sustain the high implied probability that no binding commitment to end enrichment will be reached by year-end.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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