Strengthening El Niño conditions, with the Niño-3.4 index near +2.1°C, represent the main driver suppressing U.S. tornado counts in August 2026 by shifting the jet stream northward and reducing vertical wind shear needed for organized supercells. Early-month data show only scattered weak EF0–EF1 events, consistent with below-average activity after a record northern Plains and Midwest surge earlier in the year. Historical August averages hover near 80 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA records, concentrated in northern states and occasionally boosted by tropical remnants. Traders weigh the remaining three weeks against continued stabilization that could limit totals to the 60–79 range versus rare late-month outbreaks pushing into the 80–99 bin, with sub-40 outcomes reflecting persistent high-pressure dominance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
How many Tornadoes in the US in August 2026?
120–139 39%
40–59 16%
140-169 5%
200+ 4.5%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
<40
40%
40–59
12%
60-79
43%
80-99
43%
100–119
45%
120–139
39%
140-169
5%
170–199
41%
200+
4%
120–139 39%
40–59 16%
140-169 5%
200+ 4.5%
MỚI
MỚI
Sep 1, 2026
<40
$103 KL.
40%
40–59
$85 KL.
12%
60-79
$60 KL.
43%
80-99
$52 KL.
43%
100–119
$52 KL.
45%
120–139
$52 KL.
39%
140-169
$52 KL.
5%
170–199
$14 KL.
41%
200+
$205 KL.
4%
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strengthening El Niño conditions, with the Niño-3.4 index near +2.1°C, represent the main driver suppressing U.S. tornado counts in August 2026 by shifting the jet stream northward and reducing vertical wind shear needed for organized supercells. Early-month data show only scattered weak EF0–EF1 events, consistent with below-average activity after a record northern Plains and Midwest surge earlier in the year. Historical August averages hover near 80 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA records, concentrated in northern states and occasionally boosted by tropical remnants. Traders weigh the remaining three weeks against continued stabilization that could limit totals to the 60–79 range versus rare late-month outbreaks pushing into the 80–99 bin, with sub-40 outcomes reflecting persistent high-pressure dominance.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Khối lượng
$677Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.Strengthening El Niño conditions, with the Niño-3.4 index near +2.1°C, represent the main driver suppressing U.S. tornado counts in August 2026 by shifting the jet stream northward and reducing vertical wind shear needed for organized supercells. Early-month data show only scattered weak EF0–EF1 events, consistent with below-average activity after a record northern Plains and Midwest surge earlier in the year. Historical August averages hover near 80 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA records, concentrated in northern states and occasionally boosted by tropical remnants. Traders weigh the remaining three weeks against continued stabilization that could limit totals to the 60–79 range versus rare late-month outbreaks pushing into the 80–99 bin, with sub-40 outcomes reflecting persistent high-pressure dominance.
This market will resolve according to the number of tornadoes recorded in the United States during the specified month, based on the monthly count published on the National Centers for Environmental Information U.S. Tornadoes Time Series page (see: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/tornadoes/time-series).
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Only tornadoes appearing in the final NCEI dataset for that month will count.
As of market creation, the relevant report is scheduled to be released on September 9, 2026, at 5:01 PM GMT+1 or 11:00 AM ET (Release schedule: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/dyk/monthly-releases). The market will resolve based on the first relevant tornado count published on the NCEI tornado time-series page after this scheduled release time.
If the value published after this scheduled release time is labeled preliminary, it will still determine resolution, and the market will resolve independently of any subsequent revisions, corrections, or retroactive adjustments.
The market will not resolve based on any preliminary values published before the scheduled release time.
If no data is published by the scheduled release time, or if the NCEI website is temporarily unavailable, this market will remain open until that data is made available. If the relevant data is not made available by the date of the next scheduled publication ET, this market will resolve based on available data for the most recent prior month. If the NCEI website becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve using another credible source.
Khối lượng
$677Ngày kết thúc
Sep 1, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 1:44 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Strengthening El Niño conditions, with the Niño-3.4 index near +2.1°C, represent the main driver suppressing U.S. tornado counts in August 2026 by shifting the jet stream northward and reducing vertical wind shear needed for organized supercells. Early-month data show only scattered weak EF0–EF1 events, consistent with below-average activity after a record northern Plains and Midwest surge earlier in the year. Historical August averages hover near 80 confirmed tornadoes per NOAA records, concentrated in northern states and occasionally boosted by tropical remnants. Traders weigh the remaining three weeks against continued stabilization that could limit totals to the 60–79 range versus rare late-month outbreaks pushing into the 80–99 bin, with sub-40 outcomes reflecting persistent high-pressure dominance.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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