South Carolina’s seven congressional districts feature one longstanding Democratic stronghold in the majority-Black Sixth District centered around Columbia, while the remaining six lean strongly Republican under the map upheld after failed mid-decade redistricting efforts in May 2026. Republican majorities in the state legislature could not advance a new congressional plan through the Senate, leaving the current boundaries in place for November and preserving District 6 as the sole seat Democrats are positioned to retain. District 1, vacated by Nancy Mace’s gubernatorial bid, carries “Likely Republican” or “Solid Republican” ratings from forecasters including Cook and Sabato, with limited crossover appeal in a state that has not elected a second Democrat to the House since the early 2010s. Trader pricing reflects this structural reality: the one-seat outcome captures the baseline expectation of holding the existing seat without net gains elsewhere, while probabilities for zero, two, or three-plus seats remain low absent major polling shifts or late candidate developments.