The uncompetitive nature of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with Democratic incumbent Josh Green holding a strong lead over Republican Gary Cordery in a solidly Democratic state, has shaped trader expectations for moderate total ballots cast on November 3. Low primary turnout around 28-33 percent in August, driven by voter apathy and limited contestation across many races, reinforces this positioning of 370K-400K as the leading range. Hawaii’s all-mail system and historical patterns of below-average participation further support mid-range outcomes over higher or lower extremes, with no major recent catalysts emerging to shift engagement levels significantly ahead of the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHawaii Governor Election: Turnout
Hawaii Governor Election: Turnout
370K-400K 39%
430K-460K 17%
490K+ 17%
310K-340K 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
<310K
6%
310K-340K
12%
340K-370K
8%
370K-400K
39%
400K-430K
10%
430K-460K
19%
460K-490K
7%
490K+
21%
370K-400K 39%
430K-460K 17%
490K+ 17%
310K-340K 12%
MỚI
MỚI
Nov 3, 2026
<310K
$1,047 KL.
6%
310K-340K
$106 KL.
12%
340K-370K
$45 KL.
8%
370K-400K
$1,251 KL.
39%
400K-430K
$75 KL.
10%
430K-460K
$55 KL.
19%
460K-490K
$66 KL.
7%
490K+
$78 KL.
21%
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The uncompetitive nature of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with Democratic incumbent Josh Green holding a strong lead over Republican Gary Cordery in a solidly Democratic state, has shaped trader expectations for moderate total ballots cast on November 3. Low primary turnout around 28-33 percent in August, driven by voter apathy and limited contestation across many races, reinforces this positioning of 370K-400K as the leading range. Hawaii’s all-mail system and historical patterns of below-average participation further support mid-range outcomes over higher or lower extremes, with no major recent catalysts emerging to shift engagement levels significantly ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ET
Khối lượng
$2,724Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The uncompetitive nature of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with Democratic incumbent Josh Green holding a strong lead over Republican Gary Cordery in a solidly Democratic state, has shaped trader expectations for moderate total ballots cast on November 3. Low primary turnout around 28-33 percent in August, driven by voter apathy and limited contestation across many races, reinforces this positioning of 370K-400K as the leading range. Hawaii’s all-mail system and historical patterns of below-average participation further support mid-range outcomes over higher or lower extremes, with no major recent catalysts emerging to shift engagement levels significantly ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the total number of valid votes cast in the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the results of the specified election are not definitively known by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest range bracket.
All votes certified for candidates or non-candidate options in the specified election are included. Invalidated or blank votes are not included. In ranked-choice or preferential systems, the first-round vote total will be used.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official results of the 2026 midterm election for Governor of Hawaii, as published by the state electoral authority responsible for certifying the results of the election; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,724Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 18, 2026, 10:20 AM ETNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...The uncompetitive nature of the 2026 Hawaii gubernatorial race, with Democratic incumbent Josh Green holding a strong lead over Republican Gary Cordery in a solidly Democratic state, has shaped trader expectations for moderate total ballots cast on November 3. Low primary turnout around 28-33 percent in August, driven by voter apathy and limited contestation across many races, reinforces this positioning of 370K-400K as the leading range. Hawaii’s all-mail system and historical patterns of below-average participation further support mid-range outcomes over higher or lower extremes, with no major recent catalysts emerging to shift engagement levels significantly ahead of the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtLiên quan
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