Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtFL-22 House Election Winner
FL-22 House Election Winner
$39,080 KL.
$39,080 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
62%
Democratic Party
38%
$39,080 KL.
$39,080 KL.
Nov 3, 2026
Republican Party
$22,425 KL.
62%
Democratic Party
$16,655 KL.
38%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ET
Khối lượng
$39,080Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the FL-22 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$39,080Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 28, 2026, 10:58 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting has reshaped Florida's 22nd congressional district into a modestly Republican-leaning seat, driving the 62% trader consensus for a GOP victory in the November 2026 general election. An open contest after boundary changes removed the prior Democratic incumbent's core base, combined with Florida's broader electoral trends favoring Republicans, underpins the current pricing over the 37.5% Democratic share. With the August 18 primaries days away, a crowded Republican field featuring candidates like Casey Askar, Michael Carbonara, and Belinda Keiser remains competitive per recent surveys, while Democrats advance from a narrower primary slate. These near-term nominee outcomes and the district's partisan voting index represent the primary variables that could shift implied probabilities ahead of the general election.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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