Strong nonfarm payrolls data released September 4, showing job gains nearly triple consensus, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. With the policy rate already at 3.50-3.75 percent and inflation running above the 2 percent target for over five years amid elevated energy prices, traders are weighing the central bank's credibility signals under Chair Warsh against moderating labor market trends. August CPI and PPI releases due next week represent the final key data points before the meeting, while the accompanying dot plot will clarify policymakers' updated rate paths versus market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật$2,849,927 KL.
Dec 8, 2026
September Meeting
50%
October Meeting
62%
$2,849,927 KL.
September Meeting
$1,269,522 KL.
50%
October Meeting
$620,405 KL.
62%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong nonfarm payrolls data released September 4, showing job gains nearly triple consensus, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. With the policy rate already at 3.50-3.75 percent and inflation running above the 2 percent target for over five years amid elevated energy prices, traders are weighing the central bank's credibility signals under Chair Warsh against moderating labor market trends. August CPI and PPI releases due next week represent the final key data points before the meeting, while the accompanying dot plot will clarify policymakers' updated rate paths versus market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Thị trường mở: Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
Khối lượng
$2,849,927Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Strong nonfarm payrolls data released September 4, showing job gains nearly triple consensus, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. With the policy rate already at 3.50-3.75 percent and inflation running above the 2 percent target for over five years amid elevated energy prices, traders are weighing the central bank's credibility signals under Chair Warsh against moderating labor market trends. August CPI and PPI releases due next week represent the final key data points before the meeting, while the accompanying dot plot will clarify policymakers' updated rate paths versus market pricing.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the listed Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting (inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the listed meeting). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
If the listed meeting does not take place within 7 calendar days (ET) of its scheduled end date, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate hike has been announced, this market will resolve to "No".
Emergency rate hikes will qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Khối lượng
$2,849,927Ngày kết thúc
Oct 29, 2026Thị trường mở
Mar 31, 2026, 5:35 PM ETNgười giải quyết
0x65070BE91...Strong nonfarm payrolls data released September 4, showing job gains nearly triple consensus, have lifted market-implied odds of a 25-basis-point Fed funds rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting to around 59-62 percent. With the policy rate already at 3.50-3.75 percent and inflation running above the 2 percent target for over five years amid elevated energy prices, traders are weighing the central bank's credibility signals under Chair Warsh against moderating labor market trends. August CPI and PPI releases due next week represent the final key data points before the meeting, while the accompanying dot plot will clarify policymakers' updated rate paths versus market pricing.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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