California voters will decide Proposition 4 on November 3, 2026, a legislatively referred statute that would repeal the 1988 statewide prohibition on public campaign financing and permit state and local governments to establish voluntary programs. Trader consensus currently prices the measure’s defeat at 55.5 percent, reflecting historical precedent—comparable repeal efforts failed at the ballot in 2000 and 2010—along with opposition from taxpayer advocacy groups concerned about directing public resources to candidate campaigns. The measure includes safeguards such as expenditure limits, eligibility criteria tied to small-dollar contributions, and prohibitions on using earmarked funds from education, transportation, or public safety, yet these provisions have not shifted sentiment in recent weeks. With no major new endorsements, spending surges, or procedural developments since qualification earlier in 2026, the market reflects steady skepticism about passage amid competing November ballot measures.