Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market due to her commanding performance in the June 16 top-two primary, where she secured roughly 43% of the vote and advanced comfortably ahead of Melissa Hernandez. The heavily Democratic Bay Area district, vacated by Eric Swalwell in April, favors the state senator’s established profile and Democratic endorsements. Hernandez, the BART board president, trails at 12.5% after finishing a distant second in the primary despite stronger recent fundraising and outside spending. Both candidates will compete again in November for the full term under similar district lines, but the August 18 runoff resolution hinges on turnout and any last-minute shifts in voter preference before polls close. Other listed candidates remain at negligible probabilities given their primary results.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-14 Special Election Winner?
CA-14 Special Election Winner?
Aisha Wahab 86%
Melissa Hernandez 12.5%
Carin Elam <1%
Matt Ortega <1%
$27,177 KL.
$27,177 KL.
Aisha Wahab
86%
Melissa Hernandez
13%
Wendy Huang
<1%
Carin Elam
<1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
Aisha Wahab 86%
Melissa Hernandez 12.5%
Carin Elam <1%
Matt Ortega <1%
$27,177 KL.
$27,177 KL.
Aisha Wahab
86%
Melissa Hernandez
13%
Wendy Huang
<1%
Carin Elam
<1%
Matt Ortega
<1%
Rakhi Israni Singh
<1%
Victor Aguilar Jr.
<1%
This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Thị trường mở: Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.
This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.
If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Aisha Wahab holds an 86% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market due to her commanding performance in the June 16 top-two primary, where she secured roughly 43% of the vote and advanced comfortably ahead of Melissa Hernandez. The heavily Democratic Bay Area district, vacated by Eric Swalwell in April, favors the state senator’s established profile and Democratic endorsements. Hernandez, the BART board president, trails at 12.5% after finishing a distant second in the primary despite stronger recent fundraising and outside spending. Both candidates will compete again in November for the full term under similar district lines, but the August 18 runoff resolution hinges on turnout and any last-minute shifts in voter preference before polls close. Other listed candidates remain at negligible probabilities given their primary results.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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