Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtCA-10 House Election Winner
CA-10 House Election Winner
$23,971 KL.
$23,971 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
5%
$23,971 KL.
$23,971 KL.
Nov 2, 2026
Democratic Party
$12,007 KL.
96%
Republican Party
$11,964 KL.
5%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Thị trường mở: Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
Khối lượng
$23,971Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-10 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Khối lượng
$23,971Ngày kết thúc
Nov 3, 2026Thị trường mở
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Mark DeSaulnier’s strong performance in the June 2026 primary, where he secured nearly 60 percent of the vote, reinforces trader expectations in this East Bay district. Its deep Democratic lean, reflected in a partisan voting index around D+18, combined with California’s broader electoral map and fundraising patterns, sustains the 96 percent implied probability for the Democratic nominee in the November general election. The Republican challenger faces structural barriers typical of such districts. Late developments such as an unforeseen scandal, health issue for the incumbent, or an unusually large national Republican wave could still alter the outcome before ballots are cast.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Cẩn thận với liên kết bên ngoài.
Câu hỏi thường gặp