Security concerns stemming from the unresolved Gaza conflict and associated risks to U.S. officials drive the near-certain trader consensus against a 2026 visit, consistent with longstanding presidential practice of avoiding active combat zones absent major diplomatic breakthroughs. Recent developments, including persistent hostilities and stalled ceasefire efforts, reinforce this positioning by highlighting elevated logistical and protective barriers. A sudden comprehensive peace agreement or urgent bilateral summit could still alter the outlook within the calendar year, though no such catalysts have emerged to shift implied probabilities.