**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85%) on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day window for final negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related issues, with explicit reference to eventual UNSC endorsement of any comprehensive agreement. That period expired around mid-August without a finalized text or binding resolution. Ongoing technical talks and IAEA inspection discussions have produced incremental steps, such as resumed monitoring commitments, but core gaps persist on enrichment levels, verification, and sanctions snapback mechanisms tied to prior resolutions like 2231. July 2026 UN Security Council briefings highlighted divisions among members, "lost continuity of knowledge" on Iran's nuclear program following earlier military exchanges, and disagreements over sanctions implementation. Regional actors, including Israel, have voiced reservations, complicating consensus required for Council action. With only months remaining and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with the absence of verifiable progress toward a deal eligible for UNSC endorsement by year-end. Historical precedent for prolonged Iran nuclear diplomacy and the need for P5+1 alignment further support the current pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоUNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
UNSC Resolution Endorsing Final U.S.-Iran Deal by December 31?
15% шанс
$173,460 Обс.
$173,460 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
15% шанс
$173,460 Обс.
$173,460 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85%) on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day window for final negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related issues, with explicit reference to eventual UNSC endorsement of any comprehensive agreement. That period expired around mid-August without a finalized text or binding resolution.
Ongoing technical talks and IAEA inspection discussions have produced incremental steps, such as resumed monitoring commitments, but core gaps persist on enrichment levels, verification, and sanctions snapback mechanisms tied to prior resolutions like 2231. July 2026 UN Security Council briefings highlighted divisions among members, "lost continuity of knowledge" on Iran's nuclear program following earlier military exchanges, and disagreements over sanctions implementation. Regional actors, including Israel, have voiced reservations, complicating consensus required for Council action.
With only months remaining and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with the absence of verifiable progress toward a deal eligible for UNSC endorsement by year-end. Historical precedent for prolonged Iran nuclear diplomacy and the need for P5+1 alignment further support the current pricing.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ET
Обсяг
$173,460Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85%) on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day window for final negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related issues, with explicit reference to eventual UNSC endorsement of any comprehensive agreement. That period expired around mid-August without a finalized text or binding resolution.
Ongoing technical talks and IAEA inspection discussions have produced incremental steps, such as resumed monitoring commitments, but core gaps persist on enrichment levels, verification, and sanctions snapback mechanisms tied to prior resolutions like 2231. July 2026 UN Security Council briefings highlighted divisions among members, "lost continuity of knowledge" on Iran's nuclear program following earlier military exchanges, and disagreements over sanctions implementation. Regional actors, including Israel, have voiced reservations, complicating consensus required for Council action.
With only months remaining and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with the absence of verifiable progress toward a deal eligible for UNSC endorsement by year-end. Historical precedent for prolonged Iran nuclear diplomacy and the need for P5+1 alignment further support the current pricing.
On June 14, 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, which stated in Clause 14 that it would culminate in a “final deal” to be endorsed by a binding United Nations Security Council resolution.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United Nations Security Council formally adopts a resolution that endorses, approves, implements, gives legal effect to, or incorporates such a “final deal” by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”
The “final U.S.-Iran deal” refers to a diplomatic agreement identified as the final deal contemplated by the June 14, 2026, memorandum of understanding, either in the text of the resolution, official United States or Iranian communications, or by a consensus of credible reporting.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$173,460Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jun 23, 2026, 12:51 AM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus heavily favors "No" (85%) on a UNSC resolution endorsing a final U.S.-Iran deal by December 31, 2026, reflecting stalled momentum since the June 2026 Islamabad Memorandum of Understanding (MOU).** The MOU established a 60-day window for final negotiations on nuclear limits, sanctions relief, Strait of Hormuz access, and related issues, with explicit reference to eventual UNSC endorsement of any comprehensive agreement. That period expired around mid-August without a finalized text or binding resolution. Ongoing technical talks and IAEA inspection discussions have produced incremental steps, such as resumed monitoring commitments, but core gaps persist on enrichment levels, verification, and sanctions snapback mechanisms tied to prior resolutions like 2231. July 2026 UN Security Council briefings highlighted divisions among members, "lost continuity of knowledge" on Iran's nuclear program following earlier military exchanges, and disagreements over sanctions implementation. Regional actors, including Israel, have voiced reservations, complicating consensus required for Council action. With only months remaining and no major diplomatic breakthrough reported in recent weeks, the implied probability aligns with the absence of verifiable progress toward a deal eligible for UNSC endorsement by year-end. Historical precedent for prolonged Iran nuclear diplomacy and the need for P5+1 alignment further support the current pricing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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