Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 1-equivalent system with sustained winds near 75-85 mph in the East China Sea, is tracking west-northwest on a path projected to produce landfall in eastern China, particularly Zhejiang Province near or south of Shanghai, within the next 12-24 hours. Multiple official forecast models and agencies align on this trajectory after the storm passed the Ryukyu Islands, with preparations including port closures and evacuations already underway in affected coastal areas. Trader consensus at 99.6% for a hit reflects the tight clustering of track guidance and the storm's proximity to the coastline. Even at this stage, minor shifts in steering currents from a nearby subtropical ridge or rapid weakening over cooler waters could alter the exact point of landfall or intensity upon arrival, though dissipation before reaching shore remains unlikely based on current data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China?
>99% шанс
$188,133 Обс.
$188,133 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
>99% шанс
$188,133 Обс.
$188,133 Обс.
Aug 16, 2026
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 1-equivalent system with sustained winds near 75-85 mph in the East China Sea, is tracking west-northwest on a path projected to produce landfall in eastern China, particularly Zhejiang Province near or south of Shanghai, within the next 12-24 hours. Multiple official forecast models and agencies align on this trajectory after the storm passed the Ryukyu Islands, with preparations including port closures and evacuations already underway in affected coastal areas. Trader consensus at 99.6% for a hit reflects the tight clustering of track guidance and the storm's proximity to the coastline. Even at this stage, minor shifts in steering currents from a nearby subtropical ridge or rapid weakening over cooler waters could alter the exact point of landfall or intensity upon arrival, though dissipation before reaching shore remains unlikely based on current data.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ET
Обсяг
$188,133Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 1-equivalent system with sustained winds near 75-85 mph in the East China Sea, is tracking west-northwest on a path projected to produce landfall in eastern China, particularly Zhejiang Province near or south of Shanghai, within the next 12-24 hours. Multiple official forecast models and agencies align on this trajectory after the storm passed the Ryukyu Islands, with preparations including port closures and evacuations already underway in affected coastal areas. Trader consensus at 99.6% for a hit reflects the tight clustering of track guidance and the storm's proximity to the coastline. Even at this stage, minor shifts in steering currents from a nearby subtropical ridge or rapid weakening over cooler waters could alter the exact point of landfall or intensity upon arrival, though dissipation before reaching shore remains unlikely based on current data.
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the storm over Chinese land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or by credible international news reporting confirming the storm hitting Chinese territory. For the purposes of this market, "China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including Special Administrative Regions (Hong Kong / Macau) and excluding Taiwan.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
The system's classification is determined by the single JMA advisory in effect immediately prior to the observed crossing. Once that advisory fixes classification at the time of impact, no subsequent real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis may retroactively change the outcome.
JMA position advisories are the primary resolution source. If a JMA advisory plots the center on Chinese land, the market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say. If no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms a crossing occurred between discrete advisory fixes, the market resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source. In all cases, the classification is taken from the most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the confirmed crossing time.
This is a purely geographic criterion: the storm's center must pass over Chinese land. The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Dolphin as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher). If that advisory classifies the system as extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed, the crossing does not count and the market will resolve to "No."
This market resolves "No" if Dolphin has been declared extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed on or before August 15 without having made landfall on Chinese territory, or if no landfall has physically occurred by the close of August 15, 2026.
Обсяг
$188,133Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 30, 2026, 4:50 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Typhoon Dolphin, currently a Category 1-equivalent system with sustained winds near 75-85 mph in the East China Sea, is tracking west-northwest on a path projected to produce landfall in eastern China, particularly Zhejiang Province near or south of Shanghai, within the next 12-24 hours. Multiple official forecast models and agencies align on this trajectory after the storm passed the Ryukyu Islands, with preparations including port closures and evacuations already underway in affected coastal areas. Trader consensus at 99.6% for a hit reflects the tight clustering of track guidance and the storm's proximity to the coastline. Even at this stage, minor shifts in steering currents from a nearby subtropical ridge or rapid weakening over cooler waters could alter the exact point of landfall or intensity upon arrival, though dissipation before reaching shore remains unlikely based on current data.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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