Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions remain the dominant driver of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC directing traffic to approved northern routes near its coastline and issuing warnings against southern alternatives. As of early September 2026, daily transits have stabilized at reduced levels well below the pre-conflict average of 120-140 vessels, amid lingering mine risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and secondary sanctions exposure that deter commercial operators. Oil and LNG flows continue at a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day historically routed through the chokepoint, supporting elevated Brent crude benchmarks near $75 and contributing to higher global container freight rates. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran or regional talks, further IRGC interdictions, or updated transit data from firms like Kpler and Windward that could shift trader assessments of sustained access through month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
Will __ ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by September 30?
$20,275 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
10+
63%
20+
17%
30+
12%
40+
7%
50+
5%
$20,275 Обс.
10+
$12,349 Обс.
63%
20+
$1,497 Обс.
17%
30+
$2,563 Обс.
12%
40+
$2,651 Обс.
7%
50+
$1,214 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions remain the dominant driver of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC directing traffic to approved northern routes near its coastline and issuing warnings against southern alternatives. As of early September 2026, daily transits have stabilized at reduced levels well below the pre-conflict average of 120-140 vessels, amid lingering mine risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and secondary sanctions exposure that deter commercial operators. Oil and LNG flows continue at a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day historically routed through the chokepoint, supporting elevated Brent crude benchmarks near $75 and contributing to higher global container freight rates. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran or regional talks, further IRGC interdictions, or updated transit data from firms like Kpler and Windward that could shift trader assessments of sustained access through month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ET
Обсяг
$20,275Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions remain the dominant driver of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC directing traffic to approved northern routes near its coastline and issuing warnings against southern alternatives. As of early September 2026, daily transits have stabilized at reduced levels well below the pre-conflict average of 120-140 vessels, amid lingering mine risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and secondary sanctions exposure that deter commercial operators. Oil and LNG flows continue at a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day historically routed through the chokepoint, supporting elevated Brent crude benchmarks near $75 and contributing to higher global container freight rates. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran or regional talks, further IRGC interdictions, or updated transit data from firms like Kpler and Windward that could shift trader assessments of sustained access through month-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any finalized daily number of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz reported by IMF Portwatch is equal to or above the listed value for any date between market creation and September 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
Data for a specific date must be finalized before it is considered for this market (namely, once the next date's data point is available, the previous one is finalized).
This market will resolve as soon as a qualifying figure has been finalized or once all relevant data has been finalized. If the data for the final date of the specified timeframe has not been finalized by the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the day on which such data is first released, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Additionally, if not all relevant data has been released and finalized within 14 calendar days of the end of the specified period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before the applicable resolution time will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.
Обсяг
$20,275Дата завершення
Sep 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 27, 2026, 6:57 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Geopolitical tensions and Iranian enforcement actions remain the dominant driver of shipping volumes through the Strait of Hormuz, with the IRGC directing traffic to approved northern routes near its coastline and issuing warnings against southern alternatives. As of early September 2026, daily transits have stabilized at reduced levels well below the pre-conflict average of 120-140 vessels, amid lingering mine risks, elevated war-risk insurance premiums, and secondary sanctions exposure that deter commercial operators. Oil and LNG flows continue at a fraction of the roughly 20 million barrels per day historically routed through the chokepoint, supporting elevated Brent crude benchmarks near $75 and contributing to higher global container freight rates. Key near-term catalysts include any escalation in U.S.-Iran or regional talks, further IRGC interdictions, or updated transit data from firms like Kpler and Windward that could shift trader assessments of sustained access through month-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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