Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as leverage amid U.S. sanctions pressure, IAEA access disputes, and the aftermath of 2025 military strikes on nuclear sites. Parliamentary bills and statements from figures such as Qassem Ravanbakhsh and Ebrahim Rezaei surfaced again in August 2026, yet analysts describe these moves as tactical signaling rather than settled policy. Iran has already curtailed IAEA inspections and reporting while remaining an NPT party, preserving diplomatic flexibility without triggering the formal three-month notice process under Article X. The absence of Supreme National Security Council endorsement or broader elite consensus reinforces trader expectations that formal exit remains improbable before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
Will Iran withdraw from the NPT before 2027?
11% шанс
$407,794 Обс.
$407,794 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
11% шанс
$407,794 Обс.
$407,794 Обс.
Dec 31, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as leverage amid U.S. sanctions pressure, IAEA access disputes, and the aftermath of 2025 military strikes on nuclear sites. Parliamentary bills and statements from figures such as Qassem Ravanbakhsh and Ebrahim Rezaei surfaced again in August 2026, yet analysts describe these moves as tactical signaling rather than settled policy. Iran has already curtailed IAEA inspections and reporting while remaining an NPT party, preserving diplomatic flexibility without triggering the formal three-month notice process under Article X. The absence of Supreme National Security Council endorsement or broader elite consensus reinforces trader expectations that formal exit remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$407,794Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as leverage amid U.S. sanctions pressure, IAEA access disputes, and the aftermath of 2025 military strikes on nuclear sites. Parliamentary bills and statements from figures such as Qassem Ravanbakhsh and Ebrahim Rezaei surfaced again in August 2026, yet analysts describe these moves as tactical signaling rather than settled policy. Iran has already curtailed IAEA inspections and reporting while remaining an NPT party, preserving diplomatic flexibility without triggering the formal three-month notice process under Article X. The absence of Supreme National Security Council endorsement or broader elite consensus reinforces trader expectations that formal exit remains improbable before 2027.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Islamic Republic of Iran formally notifies the United Nations of its decision to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), pursuant to Article X of the treaty by December 31, 2026 at 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
To qualify, the Iranian government must issue an official written notice that explicitly states its intention to withdraw under Article X of the NPT.
The resolution sources for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$407,794Дата завершення
Jan 1, 2027Ринок відкрито
Nov 5, 2025, 2:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Iranian officials and lawmakers have repeatedly floated withdrawal from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty as leverage amid U.S. sanctions pressure, IAEA access disputes, and the aftermath of 2025 military strikes on nuclear sites. Parliamentary bills and statements from figures such as Qassem Ravanbakhsh and Ebrahim Rezaei surfaced again in August 2026, yet analysts describe these moves as tactical signaling rather than settled policy. Iran has already curtailed IAEA inspections and reporting while remaining an NPT party, preserving diplomatic flexibility without triggering the formal three-month notice process under Article X. The absence of Supreme National Security Council endorsement or broader elite consensus reinforces trader expectations that formal exit remains improbable before 2027.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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