Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supplier reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant are on track for a fall 2026 debut, aligning with typical hardware cycles and component production timelines. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027 due to supply prioritization, the broader 18 series rollout in 2026 drives trader consensus. Potential disruptions like severe chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or unforeseen manufacturing delays remain low-probability tail risks that could still alter exact timing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
Will Apple release iPhone 18 in 2026?
99% шанс
$173,242 Обс.
$173,242 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
99% шанс
$173,242 Обс.
$173,242 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supplier reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant are on track for a fall 2026 debut, aligning with typical hardware cycles and component production timelines. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027 due to supply prioritization, the broader 18 series rollout in 2026 drives trader consensus. Potential disruptions like severe chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or unforeseen manufacturing delays remain low-probability tail risks that could still alter exact timing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
Обсяг
$173,242Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supplier reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant are on track for a fall 2026 debut, aligning with typical hardware cycles and component production timelines. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027 due to supply prioritization, the broader 18 series rollout in 2026 drives trader consensus. Potential disruptions like severe chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or unforeseen manufacturing delays remain low-probability tail risks that could still alter exact timing.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$173,242Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's long-standing annual iPhone release cadence, with premium models historically launching each September, underpins the 98.6% market-implied odds for an iPhone 18 release in 2026. Recent supplier reports and credible leaks confirm the iPhone 18 Pro, Pro Max, and foldable variant are on track for a fall 2026 debut, aligning with typical hardware cycles and component production timelines. While the base iPhone 18 may shift to early 2027 due to supply prioritization, the broader 18 series rollout in 2026 drives trader consensus. Potential disruptions like severe chip shortages, regulatory hurdles, or unforeseen manufacturing delays remain low-probability tail risks that could still alter exact timing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання