Strong El Niño conditions developing rapidly through mid-2026, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are the main driver behind the 92.7% market-implied probability that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show January–June 2026 ranking as the third-warmest start to any year, with May and June as second-warmest months behind only their 2024 counterparts, while ocean surface temperatures have already reached record highs for the month. Climate models project further intensification of the El Niño through late 2026, raising the odds of peak monthly anomalies exceeding prior records set in 2023–2024. Forecasters note realistic downside risks if the event proves weaker than expected or if short-term variability produces cooler anomalies, though current consensus from agencies such as the WMO and Met Office places a high likelihood of new monthly highs before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWill any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record?
93% шанс
$148,647 Обс.
$148,647 Обс.
Jan 10, 2027
93% шанс
$148,647 Обс.
$148,647 Обс.
Jan 10, 2027
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions developing rapidly through mid-2026, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are the main driver behind the 92.7% market-implied probability that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show January–June 2026 ranking as the third-warmest start to any year, with May and June as second-warmest months behind only their 2024 counterparts, while ocean surface temperatures have already reached record highs for the month. Climate models project further intensification of the El Niño through late 2026, raising the odds of peak monthly anomalies exceeding prior records set in 2023–2024. Forecasters note realistic downside risks if the event proves weaker than expected or if short-term variability produces cooler anomalies, though current consensus from agencies such as the WMO and Met Office places a high likelihood of new monthly highs before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Ринок відкрито: Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ET
Обсяг
$148,647Дата завершення
Jan 10, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.Strong El Niño conditions developing rapidly through mid-2026, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are the main driver behind the 92.7% market-implied probability that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show January–June 2026 ranking as the third-warmest start to any year, with May and June as second-warmest months behind only their 2024 counterparts, while ocean surface temperatures have already reached record highs for the month. Climate models project further intensification of the El Niño through late 2026, raising the odds of peak monthly anomalies exceeding prior records set in 2023–2024. Forecasters note realistic downside risks if the event proves weaker than expected or if short-term variability produces cooler anomalies, though current consensus from agencies such as the WMO and Met Office places a high likelihood of new monthly highs before year-end.
This market will resolve based on the data for the Global Land-Ocean Temperature Index for any month of 2026 versus the data points available for all years for the relevant month on record. If any month of 2026 is the hottest of that month for any year in record, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Note: If any month of 2026 is tied for hottest with the same month of another year, this market will resolve to "Yes".
The primary resolution source for this market will be the figures found in the table titled "GLOBAL Land-Ocean Temperature Index in 0.01 degrees Celsius" (https://data.giss.nasa.gov/gistemp/tabledata_v4/GLB.Ts+dSST.txt). If NASA's "Global Temperature Index" is rendered permanently unavailable, other information from NASA may be used.
This market may resolve immediately upon the release of data for any month which qualifies towards a "Yes" resolution.
If no information for all months is provided by NASA by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, a consensus of credible sources will be used to resolve this market.
Обсяг
$148,647Дата завершення
Jan 10, 2027Ринок відкрито
Feb 9, 2026, 6:26 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong El Niño conditions developing rapidly through mid-2026, layered atop the long-term anthropogenic warming trend, are the main driver behind the 92.7% market-implied probability that at least one 2026 month will set a new global temperature record. NOAA and Berkeley Earth data show January–June 2026 ranking as the third-warmest start to any year, with May and June as second-warmest months behind only their 2024 counterparts, while ocean surface temperatures have already reached record highs for the month. Climate models project further intensification of the El Niño through late 2026, raising the odds of peak monthly anomalies exceeding prior records set in 2023–2024. Forecasters note realistic downside risks if the event proves weaker than expected or if short-term variability produces cooler anomalies, though current consensus from agencies such as the WMO and Met Office places a high likelihood of new monthly highs before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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