FIFA president Gianni Infantino has repeatedly confirmed Iran's participation in the 2026 World Cup, with the squad securing player visas, shifting its base camp to Tijuana, Mexico, for security reasons, and completing preparations for group-stage fixtures against New Zealand, Belgium, and Egypt. These developments, alongside the rejection of external replacement proposals such as Italy, have solidified trader consensus around no change to the qualified field. The dominant "No Replacement" pricing reflects the absence of any FIFA suspension, Iranian withdrawal, or geopolitical escalation severe enough to trigger a late substitution under tournament rules. While a sudden ban or security-driven pullout remains theoretically possible before the June 15 opener, such outcomes lack supporting evidence from official channels or recent form.