**One Nation leads the market for third place at 61% implied probability due to its sustained primary vote surge in Victorian polling, which consistently places it in a tight three-way contest with Labor and the Coalition ahead of the November 28 election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, and DemosAU surveys from August show One Nation on 23–26%, often third or within a few points of the majors after leadership transitions—Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s appointment as One Nation leader in early August. This volatility keeps the outcome uncertain but favors One Nation finishing behind the two largest parties on primary vote totals, consistent with historical patterns for emerging minor parties in state contests. The Greens sit at just 13% in the market, aligning with their stable 12–14% polling range, while Labor and the Coalition remain priced near 50% amid shifting voter flows away from the majors. No single late-breaking event has yet altered these dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоVictoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
Victoria Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place
One Nation 61%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 5.9%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,159 Обс.
$17,159 Обс.
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
61%
Greens
13%
Labor
6%
Legalise Cannabis
<1%
Liberal–National
<1%
Animal Justice
<1%
Libertarian
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
<1%
One Nation 61%
Greens 13.3%
Labor 5.9%
Legalise Cannabis <1%
$17,159 Обс.
$17,159 Обс.
Nov 28, 2026
One Nation
$5,842 Обс.
61%
Greens
$163 Обс.
13%
Labor
$6,507 Обс.
6%
Legalise Cannabis
$1,123 Обс.
<1%
Liberal–National
$1,073 Обс.
<1%
Animal Justice
$822 Обс.
<1%
Libertarian
$717 Обс.
<1%
Shooters, Fishers, Farmers
$914 Обс.
<1%
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads the market for third place at 61% implied probability due to its sustained primary vote surge in Victorian polling, which consistently places it in a tight three-way contest with Labor and the Coalition ahead of the November 28 election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, and DemosAU surveys from August show One Nation on 23–26%, often third or within a few points of the majors after leadership transitions—Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s appointment as One Nation leader in early August. This volatility keeps the outcome uncertain but favors One Nation finishing behind the two largest parties on primary vote totals, consistent with historical patterns for emerging minor parties in state contests. The Greens sit at just 13% in the market, aligning with their stable 12–14% polling range, while Labor and the Coalition remain priced near 50% amid shifting voter flows away from the majors. No single late-breaking event has yet altered these dynamics.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ET
Обсяг
$17,159Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).**One Nation leads the market for third place at 61% implied probability due to its sustained primary vote surge in Victorian polling, which consistently places it in a tight three-way contest with Labor and the Coalition ahead of the November 28 election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, and DemosAU surveys from August show One Nation on 23–26%, often third or within a few points of the majors after leadership transitions—Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s appointment as One Nation leader in early August. This volatility keeps the outcome uncertain but favors One Nation finishing behind the two largest parties on primary vote totals, consistent with historical patterns for emerging minor parties in state contests. The Greens sit at just 13% in the market, aligning with their stable 12–14% polling range, while Labor and the Coalition remain priced near 50% amid shifting voter flows away from the majors. No single late-breaking event has yet altered these dynamics.
The 2026 Victorian state election is currently scheduled to be held on 28 November 2026 to elect members of the 61st Parliament of Victoria.
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
This market will resolve to "Yes" according to which party or coalition wins the third-most seats in the Legislative Assembly (Victoria's lower house) as a result of the next Victorian state election.
If the results of this election are not known definitively by March 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
Liberal–National refers to the Liberal–National Coalition. Liberal–National will include all seats won by both the Liberal Party and the Nationals, regardless of their parliamentary coalition behaviour, and its first-preference vote total will include the votes received by both parties.
Parties and coalitions will be primarily ranked by the number of seats won in the specified election. If two or more are tied on seats, ties will be broken by the total number of valid first-preference votes received, with higher vote totals ranking higher. If they remain tied, ties will be broken by alphabetical order of the listed names. This market will resolve to the party or coalition that occupies the third-highest finishing position after applying this ranking.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Victorian government, specifically the Victorian Electoral Commission (VEC) (https://www.vec.vic.gov.au/).
Обсяг
$17,159Дата завершення
Nov 28, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 5:36 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**One Nation leads the market for third place at 61% implied probability due to its sustained primary vote surge in Victorian polling, which consistently places it in a tight three-way contest with Labor and the Coalition ahead of the November 28 election.** Recent Resolve, Roy Morgan, and DemosAU surveys from August show One Nation on 23–26%, often third or within a few points of the majors after leadership transitions—Ben Carroll’s ascension as Labor Premier in late July and Warren Pickering’s appointment as One Nation leader in early August. This volatility keeps the outcome uncertain but favors One Nation finishing behind the two largest parties on primary vote totals, consistent with historical patterns for emerging minor parties in state contests. The Greens sit at just 13% in the market, aligning with their stable 12–14% polling range, while Labor and the Coalition remain priced near 50% amid shifting voter flows away from the majors. No single late-breaking event has yet altered these dynamics.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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