The US maintains its longstanding policy of non-recognition of Russian territorial gains in Ukraine, including Crimea and portions of Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia, consistent with NATO statements and prior legislation. Under the Trump administration, mediation efforts since 2025 have produced draft peace frameworks proposing territorial freezes or concessions along current lines of contact, yet these have emphasized de facto arrangements rather than formal US acknowledgment of Russian sovereignty. Recent actions, including the July 2026 licensing of Patriot missile production for Ukraine and continued diplomatic engagement without breakthroughs in stalled trilateral talks, reinforce trader expectations that Washington will avoid de jure recognition by the end of 2026. Structural barriers such as congressional resistance, allied coordination, and Ukraine’s insistence on security guarantees further sustain the 90% implied probability for “No.”