Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено4% шанс
$521,368 Обс.
$521,368 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
4% шанс
$521,368 Обс.
$521,368 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ET
Обсяг
$521,368Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if any legislation is passed by both houses of the United States Congress and signed into law by the president, or otherwise enacted, which authorizes the induction of personnel into the United States Armed Forces through activation of the United States Selective Service System, or otherwise establishes a military draft, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Legislation that only modifies Selective Service registration requirements or administrative procedures without authorizing induction/conscription into the armed forces will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$521,368Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 13, 2026, 1:23 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Traders assign a 95.8 percent probability against U.S. military draft authorization in 2026 because Congress has enacted no amendment to the Military Selective Service Act permitting presidential induction orders, while the all-volunteer force continues meeting personnel targets absent a declared national emergency. The fiscal 2026 National Defense Authorization Act advanced only automatic Selective Service registration effective December 2026 through federal data integration, a preparatory database update that leaves conscription authority unchanged. Bipartisan statements and Selective Service guidance confirm registration does not equate to activation. Ongoing readiness simulations and tensions such as the U.S.-Iran ceasefire have produced no legislative votes or executive requests sufficient to trigger mobilization. Realistic shifts remain possible via sudden conflict escalation prompting emergency congressional action or a formal presidential request before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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