Ongoing stalled negotiations between Russia and Ukraine, compounded by the suspension of trilateral talks following the Iran conflict in early 2026, form the core driver behind the 95.5% implied probability against a peace referendum passing before 2027. Ukrainian law bars national votes during martial law, which remains extended, while recent proposals from Kyiv have produced no breakthrough on territorial or security issues. Russian positions continue to emphasize major concessions that Ukrainian public opinion surveys show face strong domestic resistance, and Financial Times reporting indicates Moscow is unlikely to pursue substantive talks before 2027. A referendum would require a prior ceasefire or agreement, followed by parliamentary or constitutional steps, none of which appear imminent. Potential shifts could arise from unexpected diplomatic progress, battlefield changes, or renewed U.S. mediation yielding terms both sides accept in time for a late-2026 vote.