**Russia continues to conduct hybrid operations against NATO members—including drone incursions, sabotage attempts such as the August 2026 incident at Leipzig airport in Germany, and airspace violations—while deliberately remaining below the threshold for an armed attack that would trigger Article 5.** These actions have prompted Article 4 consultations and enhanced defensive measures like Eastern Sentry, but not collective-defense invocations. U.S. intelligence has flagged the possibility of a limited Russian probe on the eastern flank sometime between autumn 2026 and 2029, yet European assessments see no immediate preparations for such an operation. NATO allies have repeatedly reaffirmed their Article 5 commitment at summits, even amid questions over U.S. engagement, and Russia’s recent rhetoric on issues like Lithuanian nuclear policy has not translated into direct strikes on allied territory. With only months remaining before 2027 and no verified conventional assault underway, traders view an invocation in this narrow window as highly improbable.