**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily minimum of 24°C or below in Madrid on September 5, reflecting aggregated forecasts from numerical weather models showing nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** Current observations and ensemble guidance indicate surface temperatures will drop sufficiently overnight due to radiational cooling in the high-plateau setting (around 655 m elevation), with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient heat loss absent significant cloud cover or wind. This aligns with model consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agency projections, where the primary variables—atmospheric stability, minimal advection of warmer air, and typical September diurnal ranges—point to a minimum comfortably below the 25°C threshold. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include an unexpected increase in low-level moisture, stronger southeasterly winds, or revisions in short-range model guidance showing warmer boundary-layer air, though such changes would require substantial forecast adjustments before the overnight minimum is recorded.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Madrid on September 5?
24°C or below 99.8%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
100%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
24°C or below 99.8%
25°C <1%
26°C <1%
27°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
24°C or below
$222 Обс.
100%
25°C
$355 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$64 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
31°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
32°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
33°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
34°C or higher
$20 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily minimum of 24°C or below in Madrid on September 5, reflecting aggregated forecasts from numerical weather models showing nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** Current observations and ensemble guidance indicate surface temperatures will drop sufficiently overnight due to radiational cooling in the high-plateau setting (around 655 m elevation), with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient heat loss absent significant cloud cover or wind. This aligns with model consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agency projections, where the primary variables—atmospheric stability, minimal advection of warmer air, and typical September diurnal ranges—point to a minimum comfortably below the 25°C threshold. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include an unexpected increase in low-level moisture, stronger southeasterly winds, or revisions in short-range model guidance showing warmer boundary-layer air, though such changes would require substantial forecast adjustments before the overnight minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$801Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily minimum of 24°C or below in Madrid on September 5, reflecting aggregated forecasts from numerical weather models showing nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** Current observations and ensemble guidance indicate surface temperatures will drop sufficiently overnight due to radiational cooling in the high-plateau setting (around 655 m elevation), with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient heat loss absent significant cloud cover or wind. This aligns with model consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agency projections, where the primary variables—atmospheric stability, minimal advection of warmer air, and typical September diurnal ranges—point to a minimum comfortably below the 25°C threshold. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include an unexpected increase in low-level moisture, stronger southeasterly winds, or revisions in short-range model guidance showing warmer boundary-layer air, though such changes would require substantial forecast adjustments before the overnight minimum is recorded.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemd
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$801Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=lemdВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a daily minimum of 24°C or below in Madrid on September 5, reflecting aggregated forecasts from numerical weather models showing nocturnal cooling under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northeasterly flow.** Current observations and ensemble guidance indicate surface temperatures will drop sufficiently overnight due to radiational cooling in the high-plateau setting (around 655 m elevation), with dew points in the mid-teens supporting efficient heat loss absent significant cloud cover or wind. This aligns with model consensus from sources such as GFS runs and local agency projections, where the primary variables—atmospheric stability, minimal advection of warmer air, and typical September diurnal ranges—point to a minimum comfortably below the 25°C threshold. Scenarios that could realistically shift the outcome include an unexpected increase in low-level moisture, stronger southeasterly winds, or revisions in short-range model guidance showing warmer boundary-layer air, though such changes would require substantial forecast adjustments before the overnight minimum is recorded.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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