Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and official monitoring point to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure keeping Istanbul's overnight low near 20–21°C on September 5, aligning with the market's top-implied outcomes at 21°C and 20°C. These conditions suppress radiative cooling while maintaining mild advection from the Black Sea, preventing drops toward the lower-probability 19°C or below thresholds. Current observations and ensemble consensus show minimal deviation from seasonal early-September baselines, with no incoming fronts or moisture to alter the trajectory before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of reliable model runs and limited downside risk in the final hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 5?
20°C 40%
19°C 39%
17°C or below 5%
18°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
5%
18°C
5%
19°C
39%
20°C
40%
21°C
56%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C or higher
<1%
20°C 40%
19°C 39%
17°C or below 5%
18°C 5%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 5, 2026
17°C or below
$32 Обс.
5%
18°C
$32 Обс.
5%
19°C
$16 Обс.
39%
20°C
$0 Обс.
40%
21°C
$80 Обс.
56%
22°C
$79 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$35 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$35 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$35 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$35 Обс.
<1%
27°C or higher
$40 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and official monitoring point to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure keeping Istanbul's overnight low near 20–21°C on September 5, aligning with the market's top-implied outcomes at 21°C and 20°C. These conditions suppress radiative cooling while maintaining mild advection from the Black Sea, preventing drops toward the lower-probability 19°C or below thresholds. Current observations and ensemble consensus show minimal deviation from seasonal early-September baselines, with no incoming fronts or moisture to alter the trajectory before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of reliable model runs and limited downside risk in the final hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$419Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and official monitoring point to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure keeping Istanbul's overnight low near 20–21°C on September 5, aligning with the market's top-implied outcomes at 21°C and 20°C. These conditions suppress radiative cooling while maintaining mild advection from the Black Sea, preventing drops toward the lower-probability 19°C or below thresholds. Current observations and ensemble consensus show minimal deviation from seasonal early-September baselines, with no incoming fronts or moisture to alter the trajectory before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of reliable model runs and limited downside risk in the final hours.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$419Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast models from sources like the GFS and official monitoring point to clear skies, light northeasterly winds, and stable high pressure keeping Istanbul's overnight low near 20–21°C on September 5, aligning with the market's top-implied outcomes at 21°C and 20°C. These conditions suppress radiative cooling while maintaining mild advection from the Black Sea, preventing drops toward the lower-probability 19°C or below thresholds. Current observations and ensemble consensus show minimal deviation from seasonal early-September baselines, with no incoming fronts or moisture to alter the trajectory before resolution. Traders appear to weigh the tight clustering of reliable model runs and limited downside risk in the final hours.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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