Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a daily minimum near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeast winds, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling and maintain higher dew points. These conditions, following a modest cooling trend from mid-September highs near 25°C, position the 17°C and 18°C bins as scientifically supported outcomes with elevated implied probabilities. The leading 23°C-or-higher market share reflects trader emphasis on uncertainty in official station measurements, potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing, and historical September minima rarely dropping below 16°C under similar cloudy, humid regimes. Upcoming updated runs from global models and any revised observations will likely refine resolution thresholds tied to exact 24-hour minimums.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
Lowest temperature in Istanbul on September 16?
23°C or higher 89%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
18°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
10%
14°C
18%
15°C
40%
16°C
40%
17°C
22%
18°C
24%
19°C
22%
20°C
22%
21°C
40%
22°C
19%
23°C or higher
89%
23°C or higher 89%
15°C 40%
16°C 40%
18°C 40%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 16, 2026
13°C or below
$117 Обс.
10%
14°C
$0 Обс.
18%
15°C
$0 Обс.
40%
16°C
$0 Обс.
40%
17°C
$33 Обс.
22%
18°C
$39 Обс.
24%
19°C
$33 Обс.
22%
20°C
$38 Обс.
22%
21°C
$0 Обс.
40%
22°C
$0 Обс.
19%
23°C or higher
$0 Обс.
89%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a daily minimum near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeast winds, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling and maintain higher dew points. These conditions, following a modest cooling trend from mid-September highs near 25°C, position the 17°C and 18°C bins as scientifically supported outcomes with elevated implied probabilities. The leading 23°C-or-higher market share reflects trader emphasis on uncertainty in official station measurements, potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing, and historical September minima rarely dropping below 16°C under similar cloudy, humid regimes. Upcoming updated runs from global models and any revised observations will likely refine resolution thresholds tied to exact 24-hour minimums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ET
Обсяг
$260Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a daily minimum near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeast winds, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling and maintain higher dew points. These conditions, following a modest cooling trend from mid-September highs near 25°C, position the 17°C and 18°C bins as scientifically supported outcomes with elevated implied probabilities. The leading 23°C-or-higher market share reflects trader emphasis on uncertainty in official station measurements, potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing, and historical September minima rarely dropping below 16°C under similar cloudy, humid regimes. Upcoming updated runs from global models and any revised observations will likely refine resolution thresholds tied to exact 24-hour minimums.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$260Дата завершення
Sep 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 14, 2026, 12:31 AM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast consensus from models and agencies points to a daily minimum near 17–18°C in Istanbul on September 16, driven by persistent northeast winds, extensive cloud cover, and light rain that limit nighttime radiative cooling and maintain higher dew points. These conditions, following a modest cooling trend from mid-September highs near 25°C, position the 17°C and 18°C bins as scientifically supported outcomes with elevated implied probabilities. The leading 23°C-or-higher market share reflects trader emphasis on uncertainty in official station measurements, potential model spread in boundary-layer mixing, and historical September minima rarely dropping below 16°C under similar cloudy, humid regimes. Upcoming updated runs from global models and any revised observations will likely refine resolution thresholds tied to exact 24-hour minimums.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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