Israel’s airspace has faced repeated temporary closures in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and Hezbollah rocket fire, with the most sustained shutdowns occurring after U.S.-Israeli operations against Iranian targets in late February and subsequent missile salvos. Regional states including Iraq and Syria also restricted flights during June escalations. As of early September, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for operations but subject to an EASA advisory through September 30 citing ongoing missile and drone risks from Iran-backed groups. Trader focus centers on any fresh Iranian retaliation, Hezbollah violations of the Lebanon ceasefire framework, or Houthi activity that could prompt Israeli authorities to again ground civilian flights for safety. The fragile post-July truce and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement keep the probability of near-term restrictions elevated.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено$28,805,800 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
September 30
71%
$28,805,800 Обс.
September 30
$1,220,034 Обс.
71%
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has faced repeated temporary closures in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and Hezbollah rocket fire, with the most sustained shutdowns occurring after U.S.-Israeli operations against Iranian targets in late February and subsequent missile salvos. Regional states including Iraq and Syria also restricted flights during June escalations. As of early September, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for operations but subject to an EASA advisory through September 30 citing ongoing missile and drone risks from Iran-backed groups. Trader focus centers on any fresh Iranian retaliation, Hezbollah violations of the Lebanon ceasefire framework, or Houthi activity that could prompt Israeli authorities to again ground civilian flights for safety. The fragile post-July truce and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement keep the probability of near-term restrictions elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ET
Обсяг
$28,805,800Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Israel’s airspace has faced repeated temporary closures in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and Hezbollah rocket fire, with the most sustained shutdowns occurring after U.S.-Israeli operations against Iranian targets in late February and subsequent missile salvos. Regional states including Iraq and Syria also restricted flights during June escalations. As of early September, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for operations but subject to an EASA advisory through September 30 citing ongoing missile and drone risks from Iran-backed groups. Trader focus centers on any fresh Iranian retaliation, Hezbollah violations of the Lebanon ceasefire framework, or Houthi activity that could prompt Israeli authorities to again ground civilian flights for safety. The fragile post-July truce and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement keep the probability of near-term restrictions elevated.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Israel initiates a major closure of its airspace by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A “major closure” is defined as a broad closure, cancellation, or complete suspension of commercial aviation across the entirety of Israeli civilian airspace or a region encompassing a majority of Israeli civilian airspace, including commercial flights transiting, arriving in, and departing from that airspace. A qualifying closure must apply generally to all flights across Israel or a qualifying subset of Israeli airspace. Limited cancellations, delays, temporary ground stops or isolated regional closures will not qualify. Limited exceptions to a broad closure, however, will not disqualify such a closure from counting (e.g. exceptions for certain pre-approved flights may be permitted).
Warnings, No-Fly-Zones, flight suspensions, or other flight restrictions imposed by airlines or countries other than Israel will not be sufficient for a “Yes” resolution.
Airspace closures which occur solely due to weather conditions will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Israeli aviation authorities; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$28,805,800Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 18, 2026, 12:25 PM ETВирішувач
0x65070BE91...Israel’s airspace has faced repeated temporary closures in 2026 amid direct exchanges of strikes with Iran and Hezbollah rocket fire, with the most sustained shutdowns occurring after U.S.-Israeli operations against Iranian targets in late February and subsequent missile salvos. Regional states including Iraq and Syria also restricted flights during June escalations. As of early September, the Tel Aviv FIR remains open for operations but subject to an EASA advisory through September 30 citing ongoing missile and drone risks from Iran-backed groups. Trader focus centers on any fresh Iranian retaliation, Hezbollah violations of the Lebanon ceasefire framework, or Houthi activity that could prompt Israeli authorities to again ground civilian flights for safety. The fragile post-July truce and lack of a durable de-escalation agreement keep the probability of near-term restrictions elevated.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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