**Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31 reflects stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 Islamabad MoU.** That interim accord halted active conflict, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for talks on nuclear limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, and sanctions relief, but the deadline passed in mid-August without a final deal. Iran has reaffirmed its position on the right to enrich while maintaining a nuclear status quo amid damaged facilities; U.S. demands for a multi-year suspension or permanent halt remain unmet. Satellite imagery shows Iran repairing struck sites and relocating centrifuges to underground complexes like Pickaxe Mountain faster than anticipated, while disputes over inspector access and verification continue. These entrenched positions and lack of recent diplomatic progress sustain high probability that no agreement ending enrichment will be reached by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено14% шанс
$1,671,213 Обс.
$1,671,213 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
14% шанс
$1,671,213 Обс.
$1,671,213 Обс.
Dec 30, 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31 reflects stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 Islamabad MoU.** That interim accord halted active conflict, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for talks on nuclear limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, and sanctions relief, but the deadline passed in mid-August without a final deal. Iran has reaffirmed its position on the right to enrich while maintaining a nuclear status quo amid damaged facilities; U.S. demands for a multi-year suspension or permanent halt remain unmet. Satellite imagery shows Iran repairing struck sites and relocating centrifuges to underground complexes like Pickaxe Mountain faster than anticipated, while disputes over inspector access and verification continue. These entrenched positions and lack of recent diplomatic progress sustain high probability that no agreement ending enrichment will be reached by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ET
Обсяг
$1,671,213Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting. **Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31 reflects stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 Islamabad MoU.** That interim accord halted active conflict, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for talks on nuclear limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, and sanctions relief, but the deadline passed in mid-August without a final deal. Iran has reaffirmed its position on the right to enrich while maintaining a nuclear status quo amid damaged facilities; U.S. demands for a multi-year suspension or permanent halt remain unmet. Satellite imagery shows Iran repairing struck sites and relocating centrifuges to underground complexes like Pickaxe Mountain faster than anticipated, while disputes over inspector access and verification continue. These entrenched positions and lack of recent diplomatic progress sustain high probability that no agreement ending enrichment will be reached by year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to end all enrichment of uranium by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
An official pledge by Iran to end all enrichment of Uranium will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel.
Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium for any amount of time will count.
An agreement by Iran to end all enrichment of uranium as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal.
Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$1,671,213Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Mar 31, 2026, 4:10 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...**Trader consensus that Iran will not agree to end uranium enrichment by December 31 reflects stalled U.S.-Iran negotiations after the June 2026 Islamabad MoU.** That interim accord halted active conflict, reopened the Strait of Hormuz, and launched a 60-day window for talks on nuclear limits, stockpile down-blending under IAEA supervision, and sanctions relief, but the deadline passed in mid-August without a final deal. Iran has reaffirmed its position on the right to enrich while maintaining a nuclear status quo amid damaged facilities; U.S. demands for a multi-year suspension or permanent halt remain unmet. Satellite imagery shows Iran repairing struck sites and relocating centrifuges to underground complexes like Pickaxe Mountain faster than anticipated, while disputes over inspector access and verification continue. These entrenched positions and lack of recent diplomatic progress sustain high probability that no agreement ending enrichment will be reached by year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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