Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including interim agreements following 2025 military strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, represent the central driver of trader assessments on near-term IAEA access. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under such frameworks to restore safeguards verification and address continuity-of-knowledge gaps, particularly at Isfahan where satellite imagery showed vehicular activity around tunnels storing highly enriched uranium in early 2026. Iran has conditioned full resumption at the affected sites on completion of a final accord, leading to delays since inspectors withdrew after the strikes and limited cooperation resumed only at undamaged locations like Bushehr. Satellite monitoring indicates no large-scale reconstruction at the three sites through mid-2026, while upcoming talks and any Board of Governors resolutions could determine whether verification visits materialize before key deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоIAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by...?
$352,934 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
1%
October 31
7%
December 31
22%
$352,934 Обс.
August 31
$54,227 Обс.
1%
October 31
$79,331 Обс.
7%
December 31
$26,052 Обс.
22%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including interim agreements following 2025 military strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, represent the central driver of trader assessments on near-term IAEA access. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under such frameworks to restore safeguards verification and address continuity-of-knowledge gaps, particularly at Isfahan where satellite imagery showed vehicular activity around tunnels storing highly enriched uranium in early 2026. Iran has conditioned full resumption at the affected sites on completion of a final accord, leading to delays since inspectors withdrew after the strikes and limited cooperation resumed only at undamaged locations like Bushehr. Satellite monitoring indicates no large-scale reconstruction at the three sites through mid-2026, while upcoming talks and any Board of Governors resolutions could determine whether verification visits materialize before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$352,934Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including interim agreements following 2025 military strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, represent the central driver of trader assessments on near-term IAEA access. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under such frameworks to restore safeguards verification and address continuity-of-knowledge gaps, particularly at Isfahan where satellite imagery showed vehicular activity around tunnels storing highly enriched uranium in early 2026. Iran has conditioned full resumption at the affected sites on completion of a final accord, leading to delays since inspectors withdrew after the strikes and limited cooperation resumed only at undamaged locations like Bushehr. Satellite monitoring indicates no large-scale reconstruction at the three sites through mid-2026, while upcoming talks and any Board of Governors resolutions could determine whether verification visits materialize before key deadlines.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if one or more International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) officials physically visit the Isfahan Nuclear Technology Center, Fordow Fuel Enrichment Plant, or Natanz Nuclear Facility in Iran between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Pickaxe Mountain is not considered part of the Natanz Nuclear Facility.
IAEA officials refers to individuals acting in an official capacity on behalf of the IAEA, including IAEA inspectors, staff, and the Director General.
A qualifying visit must include physical presence within the recognized boundaries of one of the listed sites. Visits to other sites in Iran, or virtual inspections of the sites, will not qualify.
The resolution sources for this market will be the IAEA and a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$352,934Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 8, 2026, 8:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Diplomatic negotiations between the United States and Iran, including interim agreements following 2025 military strikes on the Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan facilities, represent the central driver of trader assessments on near-term IAEA access. IAEA Director General Rafael Grossi has stated that inspections of enrichment sites will occur under such frameworks to restore safeguards verification and address continuity-of-knowledge gaps, particularly at Isfahan where satellite imagery showed vehicular activity around tunnels storing highly enriched uranium in early 2026. Iran has conditioned full resumption at the affected sites on completion of a final accord, leading to delays since inspectors withdrew after the strikes and limited cooperation resumed only at undamaged locations like Bushehr. Satellite monitoring indicates no large-scale reconstruction at the three sites through mid-2026, while upcoming talks and any Board of Governors resolutions could determine whether verification visits materialize before key deadlines.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання