NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 12%
0 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
0
6%
1-3
40%
4-6
39%
7+
12%
4-6 41%
1-3 40%
7+ 12%
0 6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Dec 31, 2026
0
$79 Обс.
6%
1-3
$91 Обс.
40%
4-6
$316 Обс.
39%
7+
$98 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Обсяг
$584Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Обсяг
$584Дата завершення
Dec 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...NOAA’s August 6 update maintains a 75% probability of a below-normal 2026 Atlantic season, citing persistent El Niño-driven wind shear that has limited early activity to just two tropical storms and zero hurricanes. Official forecasts now project 2–6 hurricanes for the full June–November period, aligning closely with trader-implied odds favoring 4–6 or 1–3. Key uncertainties include whether shear will ease before the September peak and how much late-season development may occur under evolving sea-surface temperatures. CSU’s concurrent outlook of four hurricanes reflects similar model consensus, while historical analogs from strong El Niño years support totals near the lower end of the range.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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