The prospect of continued Israeli operations against Iran-backed targets in Lebanon and Gaza, alongside direct strikes on Iran itself during the early 2026 escalation, anchors trader consensus around four or five countries for the full year. Ongoing airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, combined with responses to Houthi missile and drone activity from Yemen, have already involved multiple theaters since January. Joint U.S.-Israeli actions against Iranian leadership and facilities in February and March further elevated the count, while sporadic Gaza operations and potential Syrian border activity add marginal upside. Market pricing reflects the view that major new fronts remain unlikely absent further direct Iranian retaliation or Hezbollah resurgence, though additional strikes in Yemen or elsewhere could still shift totals before year-end.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDrone attacks reported in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq amid regional tensions
On July 27, 2026, drone attacks were reported in Israel, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, and Iraq, reflecting ongoing regional conflict dynamics. While Israel was targeted, there is no credible evidence Israel conducted strikes on these countries' soil, maintaining the count of countries struck by Israel at four.
Israeli air strike kills top Hamas official in Gaza Strip
On July 26, 2026, Israel conducted an air strike killing a senior Hamas officer in Gaza. However, strikes within Gaza do not count towards the market resolution, so this event did not affect the outcome count.
Israeli air strike kills top Hamas official in Gaza Strip
4 drops to 44%6%
On July 26, 2026, an Israeli air strike killed a senior Hamas officer in the Gaza Strip, confirming Israeli strikes on Palestinian territories distinct from Israel's borders, contributing to the count of countries struck.
Israeli drone strike kills Palestinian civilian in Gaza Strip
On July 16, 2026, an Israeli drone strike targeted a tent sheltering displaced Palestinians at Gaza Port, killing one and injuring others. Although Gaza is excluded from the market's resolution criteria, this event reflects ongoing Israeli military activity in the region but does not affect the count of different countries struck.
Israeli drone strike kills Palestinian civilian at Gaza port despite ceasefire
On July 16, 2026, an Israeli drone strike targeted a tent sheltering displaced Palestinians at Gaza Port, killing one and injuring others. Although Gaza is excluded from the market's resolution, this event highlights ongoing Israeli military activity in the region but does not affect the count of countries struck.
Iran’s new Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei issues fierce statement amid ongoing conflict
4 drops to 46%5%
Following the assassination of Ali Khamenei, Mojtaba Khamenei took power and issued a strong statement, signaling continued hostilities and regional instability that affect Israeli military actions and market expectations.
Israel continues drone strikes in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran framework deal
Israel carried out drone strikes in southern Lebanon, including attacks in Kafr Rumman and Nabatieh districts, killing and injuring civilians. These strikes occurred despite a US-brokered framework agreement aimed at a phased Israeli withdrawal, confirming ongoing Israeli military activity in Lebanon.
Israeli drone strikes kill civilians in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered framework deal
4 drops to 43%7%
On July 10, 2026, Israeli drone strikes killed a man and injured others in southern Lebanon, showing continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon despite diplomatic efforts to reduce hostilities.
Israeli drone strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
On 10 July 2026, Israeli drones struck southern Lebanese villages including Kafr Rumman, killing a man and injuring others, indicating persistent Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil despite diplomatic efforts.
Israeli drone strike kills man in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
5 rises to 36%4%
On July 10, 2026, Israeli drones struck the southern Lebanese village of Kafr Rumman, killing a man despite a US-brokered framework agreement. This continued activity in Lebanon sustained market expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israeli drones strike southern Lebanese villages despite US-brokered framework deal
Despite a US-brokered agreement aimed at de-escalation, Israeli drone strikes continued in southern Lebanon, causing casualties and injuries, indicating persistent conflict and Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon in 2026.
Israeli drone strikes kill and injure in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
On July 10, 2026, Israeli drone strikes targeted southern Lebanese villages, killing and injuring civilians despite a US-brokered framework agreement aimed at de-escalation. This event confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, maintaining market confidence in Lebanon as a strike location.
Israeli drone strike kills man in southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
4 jumps to 44%10%
On July 10, 2026, an Israeli drone strike killed a man in the Lebanese town of Kafr Rumman, continuing Israeli military operations in Lebanon despite a US-brokered framework agreement intended to reduce hostilities.
Israeli drones strike southern Lebanon despite US-brokered deal
Despite a US-brokered framework agreement intended to reduce hostilities, Israeli drones struck targets in southern Lebanon, causing casualties and continuing the conflict in Lebanese territory. This sustained military activity confirmed Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on Gulf states including Jordan, Kuwait, Bahrain, and Qatar
4 plunges to 44%16%
On July 9, 2026, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks targeting multiple Gulf countries, including Jordan and Kuwait. Israeli involvement in strikes on these countries was not reported, reducing market confidence in higher strike counts by Israel.
Iran launches retaliatory missile and drone strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan
5 drops to 28%8%
In retaliation, Iran targeted Western logistical and military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, and Jordan with ballistic missiles and drones, indicating the conflict's expansion across multiple countries. Israeli responses to these attacks likely contributed to market expectations of strikes in these countries as well.
Israeli air strikes kill civilians in Gaza including children
4 dips to 42%1%
On July 8, 2026, Israeli air strikes killed at least eight people, including children, in Gaza. Although Gaza is excluded from the market's resolution criteria, this event reflects Israel's ongoing military operations and may have influenced market sentiment about the scope of Israel's strikes.
Israeli air strikes kill eight in Gaza including children
On 8 July 2026, Israeli air strikes killed at least eight people, including two children, in Gaza. While Gaza is excluded from the market's resolution, this event confirmed ongoing Israeli air operations in Palestinian territories but did not affect the count of different countries struck.
Israeli air strikes in Gaza kill eight, including two children
Israeli air strikes targeted civilians and displaced families in Gaza, killing eight people including children, confirming Israeli strikes on Palestinian territory but not counted towards this market as Gaza is excluded.
Israeli drone strike kills two in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 dips to 52%2%
On July 8, 2026, Israel conducted a drone strike in southern Lebanon killing two people despite an ongoing ceasefire, indicating continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon during 2026.
Israeli drone strike kills three Palestinians in Gaza despite ceasefire
4 surges to 60%32%
On July 1, 2026, an Israeli drone strike near a Gaza hospital killed at least three Palestinians despite an ongoing ceasefire. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes limited to Gaza, supporting the market's view of a low number of countries struck by Israel.
Israel announces successful validation of upgraded Iron Dome air defense system
4 dips to 52%1%
On June 30, 2026, Israel's Ministry of Defense announced the successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome system to counter mass missile and drone attacks. This development reflects Israel's focus on defense rather than expanding strikes to new countries, supporting the market's low probability for strikes beyond four countries.
Israel faces new drone threats from Hezbollah in Lebanon
5 rises to 43%3%
Hezbollah deployed advanced drones over southern Lebanon and northern Israel, prompting Israel to accelerate counter-drone technology development. This reflects ongoing hostilities involving multiple countries and influences market expectations about Israeli strikes in the region.
Israel continues drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire talks
4 surges to 52%15%
Despite diplomatic efforts and a fragile ceasefire, Israel carried out drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon in late June 2026, targeting Hezbollah activity and security threats. This sustained military activity kept Lebanon as a key focus of Israeli strikes.
Israel validates upgraded Iron Dome air defense system
Israel announced successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome system to counter mass missile and drone attacks, enhancing its defensive capabilities amid ongoing regional conflict. This development likely influenced market perceptions of Israel's defensive posture but did not directly affect the number of countries struck.
Israel validates new Iron Dome upgrade to counter mass missile and drone attacks
4 drops to 44%9%
On June 30, 2026, Israel announced successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome air defense system to better counter mass missile and drone attacks, reflecting ongoing high-intensity conflict and the need to defend against multiple aerial threats. This development indicated sustained military activity and potential for strikes across multiple countries.
Israel validates upgraded Iron Dome to counter mass missile and drone attacks
5 rises to 34%4%
Israel announced successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome air defense system to counter mass missile and drone attacks, reflecting ongoing high-intensity conflict and Israel's defensive posture. While not a strike event, this influenced market sentiment about the conflict's intensity and potential strike scope.
Israel validates upgraded Iron Dome to counter mass missile and drone attacks
4 drops to 40%13%
On June 30, 2026, Israel announced successful validation of an upgraded Iron Dome air defense system designed to counter mass missile and drone attacks. This development reflects ongoing high-intensity conflict and Israel's preparation for sustained strikes, impacting market confidence in Israel's military capabilities but not directly changing the number of countries struck.
Israel resumes airstrikes in southern Lebanon days after US-brokered peace deal
4 jumps to 45%5%
Despite a US-brokered agreement to end hostilities, Israel resumed airstrikes in southern Lebanon in late June 2026, indicating ongoing military operations on Lebanese soil during the year.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon despite US-brokered security deal
4 surges to 41%17%
On June 28, 2026, Israel conducted drone strikes in southern Lebanon despite a US-brokered security agreement signed days earlier. This demonstrated ongoing Israeli military operations confined to Lebanon, reinforcing market confidence in a low number of countries struck.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan
4 jumps to 50%10%
Following US strikes on Iranian targets, Iran retaliated with missile and drone attacks on US military installations in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan on June 28, 2026. This expanded the conflict to multiple countries in the Gulf region, influencing market expectations of strikes in these countries.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
Iran's IRGC launched missile and drone strikes on US military sites in Kuwait and Bahrain on June 28, 2026, escalating regional tensions. However, these strikes were by Iran, not Israel, and thus did not affect the market's resolution regarding Israeli strikes on other countries.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon amid new framework agreement
4 jumps to 53%10%
Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed at least one person a day after Lebanon and Israel signed a framework agreement. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, adding a second country to the count of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli drone strike kills two Palestinian siblings in Gaza
On June 27, 2026, an Israeli drone strike killed two Palestinian siblings in the Gaza Strip. Although Gaza is excluded from the market's resolution criteria, this event reflects ongoing Israeli aerial operations in the region.
Iranian drone strikes tanker in Strait of Hormuz, US retaliates with strikes on Iran
4 jumps to 50%12%
On June 27, 2026, an Iranian drone struck the Panama-flagged tanker M/T Kiku in the Strait of Hormuz, prompting US retaliatory strikes on Iranian military targets. This incident underscored the ongoing conflict in the strategic maritime chokepoint, affecting market perceptions of regional instability and potential strikes in countries bordering the strait.
Israel renews strikes in southern Lebanon despite peace framework
4 drops to 40%9%
Despite the June 26 framework agreement, Israel conducted drone and air strikes in southern Lebanon on June 27, escalating tensions and demonstrating ongoing military operations in Lebanese territory. Hezbollah rejected the deal, and clashes continued, reinforcing market expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israel, Lebanon, and US sign framework agreement for Israeli withdrawal
4 surges to 49%25%
On June 26, 2026, Israel and Lebanon signed a US-brokered framework agreement outlining a path for Israeli withdrawal contingent on Hezbollah disarmament. This agreement was significant for the conflict dynamics in Lebanon, where Israeli strikes continued despite the deal, affecting market perceptions of strikes in Lebanon and related countries.
U.S. launches strikes against Iran; Iran retaliates targeting U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain
7 rises to 30%3%
U.S. airstrikes on Iranian military sites and Iran's retaliatory missile and drone attacks on U.S. bases in Kuwait and Bahrain escalated regional conflict, increasing the risk of Israeli strikes on multiple countries' soil allied with Iran.
Iran Closes Strait of Hormuz Over Renewed Israeli Strikes in Lebanon
4 rises to 53%4%
Iran announced the closure of the strategic waterway in response to intense Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, threatening the fragile peace deal and raising the likelihood of wider regional strikes.
Israel hits oil installation in Iraq’s Kurdish region
11 rises to 11%1%
Israel carried out an air‑strike on an oil installation in the Iraqi Kurdistan Region, the first reported Israeli attack on Kurdish territory, adding the Kurdistan Region as a distinct country‑level entity for market purposes.
Israeli airstrikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
Minutes after a new ceasefire came into force between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon, indicating the fragility of the ceasefire and ongoing hostilities. This event sustained market confidence in Lebanon being a strike target.
Israeli air strikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
5 jumps to 48%9%
Minutes after a new ceasefire came into effect between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli air strikes hit southern Lebanon, demonstrating Israel's continued military action on Lebanese soil and influencing market perceptions of strikes in multiple countries.
Israeli airstrikes hit southern Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
5 rises to 37%3%
Minutes after a new ceasefire took effect on June 19, 2026, Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Lebanon, indicating ongoing Israeli military operations in Lebanese territory despite diplomatic efforts. This sustained activity supported market expectations of Israel striking Lebanon in 2026.
Israeli air strikes hit southern Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
On June 19, 2026, Israeli air strikes targeted southern Lebanon minutes after a new ceasefire took effect, indicating ongoing hostilities and confirming Lebanon as a repeatedly struck country in 2026.
Israeli air strikes hit Lebanon minutes after new ceasefire
4 rises to 51%1%
Minutes after a new ceasefire came into effect between Israel and Hezbollah, Israeli air strikes targeted southern Lebanon, demonstrating the fragility of ceasefire agreements and ongoing hostilities in Lebanese territory.
Islamabad Memorandum signed to de-escalate regional conflict
4 rises to 54%4%
The Islamabad Memorandum, mediated by Pakistan, aimed to reduce hostilities following joint U.S. and Israeli airstrikes, impacting market expectations by potentially limiting the number of countries Israel would strike in 2026.
Israeli air strikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran framework deal
On June 17, 2026, Israeli air strikes targeted towns in southern Lebanon despite an impending US-Iran agreement to end the war on all fronts. These continued strikes threatened the framework deal and maintained conflict intensity in Lebanon, influencing market perceptions of ongoing Israeli military actions.
Israeli air strikes on Lebanon continue despite US-Iran deal
7 rises to 3%1%
Despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war, Israeli air strikes persisted in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, threatening the framework deal and indicating ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory.
Israeli air strikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
4 surges to 50%15%
Despite a formal agreement between the US and Iran to end the war, Israeli air strikes persisted in southern Lebanon, threatening the framework agreement. These ongoing strikes underscored Israel's continued military operations on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israeli airstrikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
4 plunges to 15%19%
Israeli airstrikes targeted towns in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war on all fronts. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon influenced market perceptions of Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli air strikes continue targeting southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
5 jumps to 39%10%
Israeli air strikes persisted in southern Lebanon in June 2026 despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war, indicating ongoing Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil and sustaining market confidence in multiple countries being struck.
Israeli Air Strikes on Lebanon Continue, Threatening US-Iran Deal
4 rises to 54%3%
Continued Israeli strikes in Lebanon despite diplomatic agreements kept the focus on Lebanon and Iran, solidifying the market's expectation of a lower total country count.
Israeli airstrikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
Despite a US-Iran agreement to end the war, Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon on June 17, 2026, threatening the framework deal and indicating ongoing conflict in Lebanon, sustaining market expectations for strikes in multiple countries.
Israeli air strikes continue targeting towns in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran deal
6 rises to 14%1%
On June 17, 2026, Israeli air strikes persisted in southern Lebanon despite a US-Iran agreement to end hostilities, indicating ongoing military actions on Lebanese soil and sustained conflict with Hezbollah.
Israeli airstrikes continue in southern Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire deal
Despite a formal ceasefire agreement between the US and Iran, Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon, targeting towns such as Kfar Tebnit. This ongoing conflict threatened the stability of the ceasefire and underscored Israel's continued military operations on Lebanese soil.
Israeli drone strikes kill at least four in southern Lebanon
4 dips to 34%1%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles in southern Lebanon, killing at least four people and wounding others, continuing the pattern of Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory in 2026 despite ceasefire agreements.
Israel strikes Hezbollah target in Beirut's southern suburbs
On June 14, 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike on a Hezbollah command center in Beirut's southern suburbs, escalating tensions and confirming continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory.
Israel strikes Hezbollah target in Beirut, killing three and prompting Iranian threats
5 rises to 38%4%
On 14 June 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike on a Hezbollah command center in Beirut's southern suburbs, killing three militants. Iran vowed retaliation, indicating the conflict's expansion into Lebanon and the involvement of multiple countries in the hostilities.
Israel strikes Hezbollah command center in Beirut's southern suburbs
4 rises to 38%2%
On June 14, 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah military targets in Beirut's southern suburbs, Lebanon, including command centers and residential buildings, confirming continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israel strikes Hezbollah target in Beirut, Lebanon
Israel conducted an airstrike on a Hezbollah command center in Beirut's southern suburbs, killing several militants and escalating tensions on the northern front. This strike on Lebanese soil added Lebanon to the list of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel strikes Hezbollah command center in Beirut's southern suburbs
5 jumps to 34%7%
On June 14, 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike on a Hezbollah command center in Beirut, Lebanon, killing three and escalating tensions. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory, impacting market pricing for the number of countries struck.
Israel carries out air strikes on Lebanon, state media says
5 surges to 44%17%
On June 13, 2026, Israel carried out air strikes in southern Lebanon after ordering evacuations in about 20 locations. These strikes confirmed ongoing Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil, reinforcing Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel carries out air strikes in southern Lebanon amid escalating conflict
Israel conducted air strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, despite warnings from Iran. This sustained military activity in Lebanon further confirmed Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon, missile fragments hit Israeli air base
7 dips to 2%1%
Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people amid ongoing strikes on Hezbollah sites, while missile fragments hit an Israeli air base, confirming continued Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil in mid-2026.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon; missile fragments hit Israeli air base
4 surges to 50%15%
Israeli air strikes in southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, while missile fragments from Iranian attacks hit an Israeli air base, highlighting ongoing conflict in Lebanon and confirming strikes on Lebanese territory.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon; missile fragments hit Israeli air base
Israeli attacks on southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, while missile fragments from Iranian retaliation hit an Israeli air base, highlighting ongoing conflict in Lebanon and Iran as distinct strike locations.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon, missile fragments hit Israeli air base
On June 11, 2026, Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people, while missile fragments from Iranian attacks hit an Israeli air base, highlighting ongoing hostilities involving Israel, Lebanon, and Iran during 2026.
Turkey warns Israeli strikes on Syria and Lebanon threaten its security
5 rises to 5%4%
Turkish President Erdogan publicly warned that Israeli military strikes in Syria and Lebanon have escalated to a level that threatens Turkey's security, indicating regional spillover risks and potential future conflict involving Turkey.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
4 jumps to 34%9%
Israeli airstrikes targeted Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, killing at least 18 people and continuing near-daily attacks despite ceasefire efforts, confirming ongoing strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon; missile fragments hit Israeli air base
On June 10, 2026, Israeli attacks in southern Lebanon killed at least 18 people, while missile fragments from Iranian retaliation hit an Israeli air base, highlighting ongoing hostilities involving Lebanon and Iran.
Israeli strikes kill 18 in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
5 rises to 29%1%
On June 10, 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed at least 18 people in southern Lebanon, including in Tyre District, confirming continued Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil. This event sustained market confidence in strikes on Lebanon.
Israel carries out air strikes on southern Lebanon despite US-Iran peace talks
4 jumps to 44%10%
Israel continued air strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah despite ongoing US-Iran negotiations for a peace deal, confirming ongoing strikes on Lebanese soil and maintaining pressure on Hezbollah.
Israeli air strikes hit Lebanese city of Tyre despite Iranian warning to stop attacks
On June 9, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon's Tyre district despite warnings from Iran, confirming ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon and reinforcing Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Report Reveals Israel Launched Airstrikes Against Iran From Jordanian Airspace
4 surges to 51%17%
A military intelligence report revealed that Israel used Jordanian airspace to launch its airstrikes against Iran. While Jordan assisted defensively, the lack of direct Israeli strikes on Jordanian soil kept the country count from rising further.
Israel launches airstrikes on Iran in response to missile barrage
4 jumps to 35%9%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched high-impact airstrikes on critical military installations in western and central Iran, retaliating against a massive ballistic missile barrage fired by Iran's Revolutionary Guards. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during 2026.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
On June 8, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks, confirming continued Israeli strikes on Iranian soil in 2026.
Israel conducts air strikes on Iranian military targets after missile attack
4 rises to 43%3%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched air strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian ballistic missile attacks. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during the 2026 Iran war, impacting market expectations for strikes in Iran.
Israel conducts limited strikes on Iranian missile launch sites after Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 50%12%
Israel targeted Iranian surface-to-surface missile launch sites and infrastructure unrelated to the energy sector in response to Iranian ballistic missile attacks. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, maintaining the count of foreign countries struck at two (Iran and Lebanon).
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
5 rises to 34%3%
Following an Iranian missile attack, Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran on June 8, 2026. This demonstrated continued Israeli military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's view of Iran as a key strike target country.
Israel conducts airstrikes on military targets in Iran after missile attack
4 dips to 38%4%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks. This confirmed Israel's continued strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of Iran being a struck country.
Israel launches air strikes on Iran after missile attacks during ceasefire
Despite a ceasefire declared in April, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in Iran following Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, signaling a resumption of hostilities between the two countries.
Iran launches missile strike on Israel, intercepted by Israeli air defenses
6 rises to 5%2%
Iran launched missile strikes on Israel, which were intercepted, signaling ongoing hostilities and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iranian or allied territories, influencing market expectations of strikes on multiple countries.
Israel resumes airstrikes on Iran after missile attacks on northern Israel
5 surges to 45%15%
In June 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran following Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, marking a renewed escalation in the conflict. This demonstrated Israel's continued military operations on Iranian soil during 2026.
Israel conducts limited airstrikes on Iranian military targets after missile attack
4 rises to 42%2%
Following Iranian ballistic missile attacks on Israel, the Israeli Air Force carried out strikes on military sites in central and western Iran on June 8, 2026. These retaliatory strikes targeted missile launch sites and infrastructure unrelated to the energy sector, reaffirming Iran as a primary target.
Iran‑Israel missile and drone attacks intensify after cease‑fire
4 jumps to 52%6%
A Chosun article noted a post‑ceasefire escalation of missile and drone attacks between Iran and Israel, suggesting the conflict could spill over to other regional actors, causing a modest uptick in market odds for higher strike counts.
Israel launches strikes on Iran following severe missile barrage
7 surges to 50%16%
On June 8, 2026, Israel conducted high-impact airstrikes on western and central Iran in response to a massive missile barrage by Iran’s Revolutionary Guards, reaffirming Israel's ongoing military campaign in multiple countries and impacting market expectations.
Israel and Iran Exchange Direct Missile and Airstrikes Defying Ceasefire
4 surges to 54%17%
Israel launched retaliatory airstrikes on military and fuel targets inside Iran after Iranian forces fired ballistic missiles at northern Israel, breaking the April ceasefire.
Israel strikes Iranian military targets after missile attacks despite US calls for restraint
4 jumps to 44%10%
On 8 June 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on military targets in Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, defying US President Trump's calls to refrain from further strikes. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, maintaining Iran as a primary target country.
Israel resumes airstrikes on Iran after Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 33%8%
On June 8, 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on Iran following Iranian missile attacks on northern Israel, signaling renewed hostilities and reinforcing the ongoing conflict with Iran as a primary target country.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iranian cities Tehran, Tabriz, and Isfahan
4 surges to 38%20%
On June 8, 2026, Israel carried out airstrikes targeting IRGC missile infrastructure and nuclear-linked facilities in Iranian cities, marking the first Israeli strikes on Iranian mainland since the April ceasefire. This escalation increased tensions and confirmed Israel's willingness to strike Iranian territory, impacting market expectations for strikes in multiple countries.
Israel launches strikes on Iran following severe missile barrage
6 jumps to 13%10%
On June 8, 2026, Israel conducted high-impact air operations against western and central Iranian military installations in response to a massive missile barrage from Iran, reaffirming strikes on Iranian territory and escalating the conflict.
Israel launches strikes on Iran following severe missile barrage
5 rises to 6%3%
In response to a massive ballistic missile barrage by Iran, Israel conducted high-impact airstrikes on critical military installations in western and central Iran on June 8, 2026, reaffirming Israel's active military operations on Iranian soil during the year.
Israel Strikes Iranian Military and Fuel Targets Following Missile Exchanges
4 surges to 48%19%
Israel launched fresh airstrikes on southwestern Iran, hitting a petrochemical complex in Mahshahr, while the Houthis fired missiles at Israel, keeping the conflict active across multiple fronts.
Israel launches strikes on western and central Iran following severe missile barrage
4 surges to 41%28%
In response to a massive Iranian ballistic missile barrage, Israel launched high-impact air operations against critical military installations in Iran, including missile storage and petrochemical complexes, confirming ongoing strikes on Iranian territory.
Israeli and U.S. forces conduct rescue operation off Oman coast during Operation Epic Fury
5 rises to 40%4%
During ongoing operations, allied forces including Israel participated in rescue missions off Oman, highlighting the regional scope of military activities and Israel's operational reach beyond its borders.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire tensions
5 rises to 30%3%
On June 7, 2026, Israel carried out airstrikes in southern Lebanon after ordering evacuations, despite ongoing ceasefire talks. This continued military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's view of Lebanon as a distinct country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel strikes Beirut after Hezbollah missile and drone attack
On 7 June 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut in response to missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory in mid-2026.
Israel carries out airstrikes in southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah
5 jumps to 43%10%
In June, Israel continued airstrikes in southern Beirut targeting Hezbollah militants, despite a US-Iran ceasefire agreement. These ongoing strikes in Lebanon sustained the market's view of Israel striking Lebanese territory during 2026.
Israel strikes police post in southern Beirut after Hezbollah attack
Israel hit a police post in the Dahiyeh district of Beirut, Lebanon, after a Hezbollah attack. The strike was reported as a targeted Israeli attack on a specific urban area, reinforcing Lebanon’s role in the country tally.
Israeli air strikes hit southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah
4 dips to 45%4%
On June 7, 2026, Israel struck southern Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah drone attacks, continuing strikes on Lebanese soil despite ceasefire agreements. This reinforced Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Iran fires ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Iran and Lebanon
4 rises to 50%2%
Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel in retaliation for Israeli strikes, leading to Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military targets and Lebanese Hezbollah positions, confirming Iran and Lebanon as strike locations.
Iran launches missile attacks on Israel; Israel retaliates with strikes on Iran and Lebanon
4 surges to 53%19%
On June 7, 2026, Iran fired ballistic missiles at Israel, marking a renewed escalation after the ceasefire. Israel responded with strikes on Iranian military targets and Lebanese Hezbollah positions, reaffirming its focus on Iran and Lebanon as strike locations.
Israel strikes Beirut after Hezbollah missile and drone attack
Israel carried out air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah. This marked a significant escalation in Lebanon, confirming Israel's strikes on Lebanese territory in 2026.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks
4 jumps to 43%9%
Following Iranian missile attacks on Israel, including strikes on military bases, Israel launched airstrikes on military targets in central and western Iran. This continued the pattern of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil throughout 2026.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
4 rises to 44%2%
On June 7, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in retaliation for Iranian missile attacks on Israel. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during the conflict, supporting market confidence in strikes on Iran.
Israeli airstrikes kill Lebanese army officers after ceasefire deal
4 jumps to 18%8%
On June 6, 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed multiple Lebanese army officers, violating a recent ceasefire deal and threatening the fragile truce. This event underscored continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon, supporting market expectations of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel renews airstrikes on southern Beirut amid ceasefire tensions
4 rises to 28%3%
On 6 June 2026, Israel launched airstrikes on southern Beirut in retaliation against Hezbollah drone attacks, despite a renewed ceasefire. This continued military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Iran.
Israel strikes Beirut suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
On June 6, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes in the Dahieh district of Beirut, marking the first such attack on the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire was renewed. This retaliatory strike followed Hezbollah drone attacks on Israeli forces, maintaining conflict intensity in Lebanon.
Israeli airstrikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
5 jumps to 45%12%
On June 6, 2026, Israel struck southern Beirut in retaliation for Hezbollah drone attacks, marking strikes within Lebanon's capital and demonstrating continued Israeli military operations in Lebanon despite ceasefire efforts. This reinforced Lebanon as a key country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli air strikes hit Beirut's southern suburbs in retaliation against Hezbollah
4 surges to 35%15%
On June 6, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on southern Beirut, Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah positions in retaliation for drone attacks. This marked the first such attack on the Lebanese capital since a US-brokered ceasefire was renewed, escalating tensions in the region.
Israel strikes military targets in Iran after Iranian missile attack
4 rises to 52%2%
Following Iranian missile attacks on Israel, the Israeli Air Force conducted strikes on military targets in central and western Iran in early June 2026, confirming ongoing Israeli strikes in Iran during 2026.
Hezbollah rejects US-brokered ceasefire as Israeli strikes continue in Lebanon
4 plunges to 28%19%
On June 5, 2026, Hezbollah formally rejected a US-brokered ceasefire agreement with Israel, while Israeli airstrikes persisted in southern Lebanon. This ongoing conflict kept the market focused on strikes in Lebanon, reinforcing expectations of limited countries targeted by Israel.
Israeli drone strikes hit vehicles near Beirut amid Hezbollah rocket attacks
4 dips to 42%3%
On June 3, 2026, Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles near Beirut, Lebanon, wounding civilians and escalating tensions with Hezbollah, which had fired rockets into northern Israel. This continued Israel's military operations on Lebanese soil during the ongoing conflict.
Israeli drone strikes kill at least four in southern Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
4 dips to 48%2%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles in southern Lebanon, killing at least four people, continuing the pattern of strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israel expands strikes and ground operations in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 39%8%
Israel intensified airstrikes and expanded ground operations beyond its declared security zone in southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah and increasing military pressure in the region, contributing to the count of countries struck by Israel.
Israeli strikes kill civilians in southern Lebanon amid conflict escalation
5 rises to 11%1%
On May 27-28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon, including Tyre and Sidon areas, killed multiple civilians including journalists and families fleeing. These strikes underscored Israel's expanded military operations in Lebanon, confirming Lebanon as a key country struck in 2026.
Israel intensifies strikes on Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon
4 jumps to 43%12%
Israel struck more than 100 Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon following escalating drone attacks by Hezbollah. This sustained military campaign reinforced Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon kill 31 amid surge in hostilities
4 jumps to 35%6%
Israeli military operations intensified in Lebanon, resulting in 31 deaths and numerous injuries. The United Nations Interim Force in Lebanon reported extensive Israeli artillery and drone activity across the border, reinforcing the reality of multiple strikes on Lebanese soil and sustaining market confidence in strikes on at least four countries.
Israeli strikes in Lebanon cause 31 deaths amid rising conflict
4 surges to 45%18%
Israeli military operations intensified in Lebanon, resulting in significant casualties and increased rocket fire from Hezbollah into northern Israel. This sustained conflict reinforced market expectations of Israel striking Lebanon and possibly other countries.
Israeli military kills at least eight in southern Lebanon amid clashes with Hezbollah
5 surges to 38%26%
On May 20, 2026, Israeli strikes in southern Lebanon killed multiple people, highlighting Israel's active military operations in Lebanon against Hezbollah. This confirmed strikes on Lebanese soil, affecting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israeli drone strikes kill 12 people in Lebanon including children
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles on a highway south of Beirut, killing 12 people including two children, confirming continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israeli drone strikes kill civilians in southern Lebanon
5 surges to 28%15%
Israeli drone strikes targeted vehicles on a highway south of Beirut, killing at least 12 people including children. These strikes in Lebanon reinforced the market's assessment of Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel reportedly establishes secret military outpost in Iraq to support Iran strikes
4 rises to 40%4%
Reports emerged in May 2026 that Israel had built covert military bases in Iraq to support its air campaign against Iran, and conducted airstrikes to repel Iraqi forces near these bases. This confirms Israeli strikes and military presence on Iraqi soil in 2026.
WSJ Exposes Secret Israeli Military Base and Airstrikes in Iraq
4 jumps to 32%14%
The Wall Street Journal revealed that Israel had built a secret base in Iraq and used airstrikes to defend it. This public confirmation of direct Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil solidified the count of struck countries.
Israel conducts drone strike on Lebanese village of Manara, targeting alleged Hamas commander’s home
5 drops to 11%12%
The strike on Manara, claimed by Israel to target a Hamas commander’s residence, marked another confirmed Israeli operation on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market’s expectation of a low total country count.
Israel continues targeted strikes against Iranian-backed forces in neighboring regions
5 jumps to 36%10%
Despite diplomatic progress toward ceasefire, Israel maintained military operations targeting Iranian proxies in adjacent countries, indicating ongoing multi-front conflict and increasing the number of countries potentially struck by Israel.
Israel strikes Beirut for first time since Lebanon ceasefire
4 jumps to 38%8%
On 6 May 2026, Israel conducted an airstrike targeting a senior Hezbollah commander in Beirut, marking the first strike on the Lebanese capital since the April ceasefire. This event maintained market focus on Lebanon as a strike location.
Israeli airstrikes kill senior Hezbollah commanders in Beirut and southern Lebanon
Israeli strikes targeted senior Hezbollah commanders in Beirut and southern Lebanon in May 2026, killing multiple high-ranking figures and continuing military operations in Lebanon, confirming ongoing strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli air attacks kill at least 13 in southern and eastern Lebanon violating ceasefire
6 plunges to 14%22%
Israeli air strikes on May 6, 2026, targeted southern and eastern Lebanon, killing civilians and violating a US-brokered ceasefire, sustaining the conflict in Lebanon and confirming ongoing strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israeli air attacks kill at least 13 in southern and eastern Lebanon
On May 6, 2026, Israeli air attacks targeted southern and eastern Lebanon, killing at least 13 people and violating a US-brokered ceasefire, sustaining the conflict on Lebanese soil.
Israeli air attacks kill at least 13 in southern and eastern Lebanon
On May 6, 2026, Israeli air attacks targeted southern and eastern Lebanon, killing at least 13 people and wounding more than a dozen. These strikes violated a US-brokered ceasefire and continued to escalate tensions in Lebanon, impacting market expectations of Israeli military activity in the country.
Israel strikes Beirut suburbs targeting Hezbollah commander
4 dips to 1%2%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Beirut's suburbs, the first since the April ceasefire, targeting a senior Hezbollah commander. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory despite ceasefire agreements.
U.S.‑mediated ceasefire talks reduce Israel’s incentive for further foreign strikes
8 jumps to 12%10%
Renewed diplomatic negotiations between the U.S., Israel and regional actors lowered expectations of additional cross‑border attacks, causing the market to fall sharply toward the low‑country outcomes.
Israeli airstrikes kill at least 10 in southern Lebanon amid ceasefire violations
Israeli airstrikes on May 2, 2026, targeted multiple towns in southern Lebanon, killing civilians and violating a ceasefire. This sustained military activity in Lebanon kept market expectations for strikes on multiple countries elevated.
Israeli airstrikes kill at least 10 in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
5 jumps to 35%7%
Despite a ceasefire declared two weeks prior, Israel launched multiple airstrikes across southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, indicating ongoing conflict and continued strikes on Lebanese soil. This maintained market support for Israel striking Lebanon as one of the countries.
Israel launches multiple air strikes across southern Lebanon, killing at least 10 people
5 rises to 29%4%
On 2 May 2026, Israel intensified air strikes in southern Lebanon, killing civilians and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. These strikes demonstrated Israel's ongoing military operations in Lebanon, contributing to the count of countries struck in 2026.
Israeli air strikes kill at least 10 people in southern Lebanon despite ceasefire
Israel launched multiple airstrikes across southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure, violating a ceasefire and continuing to escalate conflict on Lebanese soil, contributing to the count of countries struck.
Israeli air strikes kill at least 10 people in southern Lebanon
4 drops to 13%5%
Israel continued air strikes across southern Lebanon, killing civilians and targeting Hezbollah positions, confirming ongoing Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil and reinforcing the market's assessment.
Israeli air strikes kill 10 people in southern Lebanon violating ceasefire
Despite a ceasefire declared two weeks prior, Israel conducted multiple air strikes across southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, continuing military operations against Hezbollah and Lebanese territory.
Israeli air strikes kill at least 10 people in southern Lebanon
On May 2, 2026, Israel launched multiple air strikes across southern Lebanon, killing at least 10 people and violating a recently declared ceasefire. These strikes targeted towns including Nabatieh and Tyre districts, underscoring ongoing hostilities in Lebanon despite diplomatic efforts.
Israeli airstrikes kill at least 10 people in southern Lebanon
4 surges to 30%17%
Israel launched multiple airstrikes across southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military infrastructure, killing civilians and militants. This continued military engagement in Lebanon reinforced the inclusion of Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli drone strike hits Iraqi border outpost
10 rises to 10%1%
Israeli drones hit an Iraqi border outpost in the Kurdish region, marking the first Israeli strike on Iraqi soil and raising the total country count.
Israeli airstrikes kill 10 in southern Lebanon amid Hezbollah rocket fire
Israel conducted several airstrikes in southern Lebanon killing at least 10 people, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones at northern Israel. This ongoing conflict in Lebanon confirms Israel's strikes are focused on Lebanon and Gaza, with no evidence of strikes on other countries.
Israel conducts limited drone strikes on Iranian‑backed militia bases in Iraq
8 plunges to 2%22%
For the first time Israel hit targets inside Iraq, expanding the list of countries under attack and nudging the market back up toward the 8‑country outcome.
Israel warns Lebanese civilians to flee ahead of strikes in southern Lebanon
Israel's military warned residents in seven southern Lebanese towns to evacuate ahead of strikes targeting Hezbollah militants. This continued Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the expectation of strikes limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Israel conducts limited strike on Iranian air defense near Isfahan
Israel launched a calibrated strike against an S-300 radar system near Isfahan on April 19, 2026, demonstrating capability without escalating to full-scale war. This confirmed Israel's operational reach into Iranian territory, reinforcing the market's view of strikes in multiple countries.
Israel conducts limited strikes on Iranian air defense near Isfahan
4 jumps to 33%7%
Israel launched calibrated strikes against Iranian air defense radar systems near Isfahan, demonstrating military capabilities without escalating to full-scale war. This action reinforced the ongoing conflict dynamics and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil.
10-day ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah takes effect in Lebanon
A ceasefire was agreed between Israel and Hezbollah in Lebanon, temporarily halting hostilities. Despite this, Israeli strikes and Hezbollah rocket fire continued sporadically, indicating ongoing conflict primarily limited to Lebanon and Gaza.
Israeli military strikes south of Beirut amid ongoing conflict with Hezbollah
On April 15, 2026, Israeli strikes targeted vehicles and infrastructure south of Beirut, Lebanon, continuing the campaign against Hezbollah despite ongoing diplomatic talks, confirming sustained Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil.
Israel pauses cross‑border strikes after EU energy‑security summit
7 plunges to 24%15%
The EU’s focus on regional energy security and calls for de‑escalation led Israel to temporarily halt operations beyond Lebanon, pulling the market down toward lower outcomes.
Israel strikes Iranian missile facilities; Iran hits Saudi refinery
5 plunges to 30%17%
Israel reported a new wave of strikes on Iranian missile and drone production sites, and Iranian retaliation hit a Saudi oil refinery. The market edged lower as the conflict appeared to be contained to Iran and Saudi Arabia rather than expanding further.
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon ahead of disarmament talks
5 dips to 23%4%
Israel intensified its campaign with strikes on Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon just before a scheduled Lebanese army briefing on disarmament, adding further evidence of continued operations in Lebanon and keeping the market weighted toward lower outcomes.
Israel launches massive airstrikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
5 jumps to 29%5%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and disrupting a fragile ceasefire. This intensified Israeli military activity in Lebanon, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in Lebanon as a separate country.
Israel launches 100 air strikes across Lebanon in 10 minutes
5 jumps to 24%14%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes across Lebanon within 10 minutes, described as its most powerful attacks on Lebanon. This large-scale strike confirmed Lebanon as a second country targeted by Israel in 2026, influencing market prices towards multiple countries struck.
Israel conducts massive airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 jumps to 29%6%
On April 8, 2026, shortly after a ceasefire announcement in the Iran war, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah militants. This demonstrated Israel's continued military focus on Lebanon alongside Iran.
Israel launches massive wave of strikes across Lebanon
Israel carried out its largest wave of air‑strikes on Lebanon since the war began, crushing Hezbollah positions across the country. Though Lebanon had already been counted, the intensity pushed market sentiment toward higher country counts as Israel demonstrated capability to strike multiple locations in a single country.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 dips to 38%3%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people despite a ceasefire announcement. This confirmed ongoing Israeli strikes in Lebanon, reinforcing Lebanon as a second country struck in 2026.
Israel launches massive airstrikes across Lebanon after US-Iran ceasefire announcement
4 jumps to 45%5%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people despite a ceasefire announcement. This intensified strikes on Lebanese soil, reinforcing Lebanon as a key target country in 2026.
Israel launches its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
5 jumps to 44%5%
Following a ceasefire announcement, Israel conducted large-scale airstrikes across Lebanon, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah militants. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes on Lebanon as a second foreign country.
Israel launches 100 air strikes across Lebanon including Beirut
4 plunges to 2%42%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted a massive wave of air strikes across Lebanon, including central Beirut, killing hundreds and marking the most powerful attacks on Lebanese soil during the conflict. This confirmed Lebanon as a second country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel launches massive airstrikes on Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire
4 jumps to 42%7%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon since the 2024 war, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah militants in Beirut's southern suburbs. This occurred shortly after a US-Iran ceasefire announcement, indicating Israel's continued military focus on Lebanon alongside Iran.
Israel launches massive wave of 100 air strikes across Lebanon
5 jumps to 25%13%
On 8 April 2026, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon, killing at least 357 people. This significant escalation confirmed Israel striking Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes on Lebanon despite ceasefire
On April 8, Israel conducted its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah militants. This escalation in Lebanon reinforced the market's expectation of strikes in Lebanon, maintaining the count of countries struck by Israel.
Israel launches massive wave of air strikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 jumps to 53%9%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon, described as its most powerful attacks on Lebanon since the 2024 war. This occurred shortly after a ceasefire announcement, escalating the conflict and confirming Israel's continued strikes on Lebanese territory.
Israel launches massive air strikes across Lebanon killing hundreds
5 surges to 32%26%
On 8 April 2026, Israel launched an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon, killing at least 357 people. This large-scale attack on Lebanese soil was a critical event influencing market prices, confirming Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel launches massive strikes on Lebanon killing hundreds and damaging infrastructure
5 jumps to 31%7%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful attacks on Lebanon during the conflict, killing over 300 people and damaging vital infrastructure including bridges. These strikes were part of the ongoing war with Hezbollah and expanded Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil.
Israel launches powerful air strikes across Lebanon despite US-Iran ceasefire
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful air strikes on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. This occurred shortly after a ceasefire announcement in the Iran war, indicating Israel's continued military operations in Lebanon and affecting market views on strikes in Lebanon.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes across Lebanon killing hundreds
5 dips to 1%2%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon since the start of the conflict, killing at least 357 people and striking multiple locations including Beirut, significantly escalating strikes on Lebanese territory.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon shortly after a ceasefire announcement, killing hundreds and escalating conflict on the northern front. This event increased the market's probability of Israel striking multiple countries, particularly Lebanon.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes across Lebanon killing hundreds
4 jumps to 26%8%
Despite a ceasefire announcement, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, confirming strikes on Lebanese soil and escalating the regional conflict.
Israel launches powerful air strikes across Lebanon killing at least 357 people
7 drops to 4%9%
Following a ceasefire announcement, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing hundreds, indicating strikes on Lebanese soil and increasing the count of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel launches powerful air strikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 drops to 18%10%
Following a ceasefire announcement, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil and impacting the market's view on the number of countries struck.
Israel launches powerful air strikes across Lebanon killing hundreds
6 jumps to 36%9%
On April 8, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful attacks on Lebanon, killing at least 357 people and targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, expanding the conflict to Lebanese territory and increasing the count of countries struck.
Israel conducts major overnight air strikes on Iranian airbases in Tehran
5 jumps to 39%8%
On 6 April 2026, Israel carried out a significant air strike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, disrupting missile launch capabilities. This escalation reinforced the market's view of Israel striking Iranian territory.
Israel strikes Tehran air bases targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC units
Israel carried out a major overnight strike on Iranian air facilities in Tehran, targeting both the Iranian Air Force and Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps air units, indicating continued Israeli strikes deep inside Iran.
Israel carries out major overnight strike on Iranian air bases in Tehran
6 rises to 13%3%
Israel conducted a significant airstrike targeting Iranian Air Force and Revolutionary Guards air units in Tehran, demonstrating continued Israeli strikes on Iranian territory and escalating the conflict further.
Israel conducts major airstrike on Iranian airbases in Tehran
Israel carried out a significant overnight strike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, disrupting missile launch capabilities. This demonstrated Israel's direct military action on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in multiple countries.
Israel strikes Iranian airbases in Tehran
6 rises to 7%2%
Israel carried out a major overnight strike on Iranian air facilities in Tehran, targeting both the Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units. This confirmed continued Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, reinforcing the market's assessment of strikes on Iran.
Israel carries out major overnight strike on Iranian air bases in Tehran
5 surges to 27%19%
On April 6, 2026, Israel struck Iranian air facilities in Tehran targeting the Iranian Air Force and Revolutionary Guards air units, confirming ongoing strikes on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's expectation of multiple countries being struck.
Israel carries out major overnight air strike on Iranian air bases in Tehran
4 jumps to 27%9%
On April 6, 2026, Israel conducted a significant air strike targeting Iranian Air Force and Revolutionary Guards air units in Tehran, demonstrating continued strikes deep inside Iran and reinforcing the count of countries struck by Israel.
Israel conducts major overnight strike on Iranian air bases in Tehran
4 jumps to 26%8%
Israel carried out a significant airstrike targeting Iranian Air Force and IRGC air units in Tehran, confirming strikes on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's expectation of Israeli strikes in Iran.
Israel strikes Iranian air bases in Tehran
Israel carried out a major overnight strike on Iranian air facilities in Tehran, targeting both the Iranian Air Force and the Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps’ air units. This demonstrated Israel's continued military operations beyond Iran's borders and contributed to the count of countries struck.
Israel launches powerful airstrikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
On April 6, 2026, Israel launched its most powerful airstrikes on Lebanon, killing hundreds and targeting Hezbollah leadership, defying ceasefire agreements and escalating the conflict in Lebanon, further increasing the number of countries struck by Israel.
Hezbollah fires drone at northern Israel amid ongoing conflict
4 jumps to 40%5%
Hezbollah launched a drone attack on northern Israel, prompting Israeli strikes on Hezbollah targets in Lebanon. This continued the pattern of Israeli strikes on Lebanon, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in at least two countries outside Israel's borders.
Israeli airstrikes hit multiple targets deep inside Iran including missile infrastructure
4 rises to 53%3%
On April 3, 2026, Israeli air operations continued across Iran with strikes on over 50 targets related to ballistic missile infrastructure, command centers, and financial hubs. This confirmed Israel's active strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in Iran and Lebanon only.
Iran launches major missile and drone attacks on Israel and Gulf targets
On April 3, 2026, Iran launched a significant wave of ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states, escalating the conflict and prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes in multiple countries.
Iranian missile and drone attacks target Israel and Gulf states amid conflict
In early April 2026, Iran launched ballistic missile and drone attacks against Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states, including Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia, escalating the regional conflict. Israel's military responded with airstrikes on Iranian targets, reinforcing the multi-country scope of the conflict.
Israel conducts extensive airstrikes deep in Iran targeting military and financial infrastructure
4 jumps to 53%7%
On April 3, 2026, Israel carried out around 20 strike sorties across western and central Iran, targeting over 50 sites related to ballistic missile infrastructure, command centers, and financial hubs linked to Iran's military. This large-scale operation confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of Israel striking multiple countries, including Iran.
Israel intercepts missiles fired from Iran amid regional tensions
4 jumps to 34%14%
Israel's military confirmed interception of missiles launched from Iran, while Iranian drones struck Kuwaiti oil facilities, highlighting the expanding regional conflict. This event underscored the possibility of Israel striking multiple countries, including Iran's proxies.
First major wave of Iranian ballistic missiles and drones launched at Israeli and GCC targets
On April 3, 2026, Iran launched a significant missile and drone attack on Israel and Gulf Cooperation Council states, escalating the conflict and influencing market views on Israeli retaliatory strikes across multiple countries.
Israeli air defenses intercept Iranian missile attacks targeting Israel
4 drops to 29%9%
On April 2, 2026, Israeli air defense systems intercepted multiple missiles launched from Iran, with missile fire directed at Israeli territory. This event underscored the ongoing conflict with Iran but did not indicate new countries being struck by Israel, thus affecting market confidence in lower strike counts.
Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut after missile and drone attacks
5 jumps to 29%9%
On April 2, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of strikes in Lebanon.
Israeli air defenses intercept Iranian missile attacks; Hezbollah attacks northern Israel
On April 2, 2026, Israeli air defenses intercepted multiple missiles launched from Iran, while Hezbollah launched attacks on Israeli border areas. This event highlights the ongoing conflict but does not indicate new countries struck by Israel, reinforcing market views of limited strike scope.
Israel intercepts multiple missile waves launched from Iran, air raid sirens across Israel
4 jumps to 42%7%
On April 2, 2026, Israeli forces reported intercepting several waves of missiles launched from Iran, with air raid sirens activated across central Israel including Tel Aviv. This event underscored the ongoing conflict with Iran and the likelihood of Israeli strikes on Iranian territory, influencing market prices for strikes on multiple countries.
Israel strikes Beirut after Hezbollah missile and drone attack
4 jumps to 42%5%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israeli territory, Israel launched air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on April 2, 2026. This intensified the conflict in Lebanon and confirmed Israel's active military operations on Lebanese soil, reinforcing market expectations of strikes in Lebanon.
Israel intercepts Iranian missile attacks amid Hezbollah rocket fire
5 jumps to 36%12%
On April 2, 2026, Israeli air defenses intercepted multiple missile waves launched from Iran, while Hezbollah fired rockets and drones targeting northern Israel. Israeli retaliatory strikes and defensive actions underscored the multi-front conflict, influencing market expectations of strikes on multiple countries.
Israel intercepts Iranian missile attacks amid Hezbollah rocket and drone strikes
On April 2, 2026, Israeli air defenses intercepted several waves of missiles launched from Iran, while Hezbollah simultaneously launched rockets and a drone strike targeting northern Israeli towns. This heightened military activity confirmed ongoing strikes involving Israel, Iran, and Lebanon but did not indicate new countries being struck by Israel.
Iranian missile strikes hit southern Israeli cities near nuclear site
Iranian missiles struck the southern Israeli cities of Dimona and Arad near Israel's main nuclear research center, causing injuries and damage. This was the first time Iranian missiles penetrated Israel's air defenses in that area, escalating tensions and Israeli military responses in the region.
Israeli air defenses respond to Iranian missile attacks over Jerusalem
4 jumps to 28%10%
On March 31, 2026, Israeli air defense systems intercepted missiles launched from Iran targeting Jerusalem, indicating ongoing hostilities but no confirmed Israeli strike on Iranian soil by this date. This event influenced market prices by maintaining uncertainty about strikes on Iran.
Missile attacks from Iran prompt Israeli air defense response over Jerusalem
Multiple explosions were reported over Jerusalem after air defense systems responded to missiles launched from Iran, confirming Israeli strikes and Iranian retaliation involving Iranian territory and Israeli airspace.
Israeli air defenses respond to Iranian missile attacks over Jerusalem
5 jumps to 22%10%
On March 31, 2026, Israeli air defense systems intercepted missiles launched from Iran targeting Jerusalem, indicating ongoing hostilities and Israeli defensive and offensive operations involving Iranian territory and influence, affecting market perceptions of strike counts.
Israeli air defenses intercept missiles launched from Iran targeting Jerusalem
On March 31, 2026, multiple explosions were reported over Jerusalem after Israeli air defense systems responded to missile attacks launched from Iran. This event underscored the ongoing conflict between Israel and Iran, with missile strikes impacting Israeli territory but no confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil during this period.
Houthis launch first missile attack on Israel during 2026 war
On March 28, 2026, Yemen's Houthis claimed responsibility for their first missile and drone attack on Israel, marking a new front in the conflict and adding Yemen as a country where Israel faced hostilities, though Israeli strikes on Yemen were not confirmed.
Israel strikes Houthi targets in Yemen in response to missile attacks
5 jumps to 15%5%
Israel launched airstrikes on Houthi-controlled areas in Yemen, including the capital Sanaa and Hodeidah port, in retaliation for missile and drone attacks on Israel, expanding the conflict to Yemen's territory.
Yemen's Houthis Resume Attacks Against Israel, Joining the Regional Conflict
5 rises to 32%3%
The Houthis in Yemen launched ballistic missiles at Israel, prompting expectations of retaliatory Israeli airstrikes on Yemeni soil, which would increase the total count of struck countries.
Israeli strike kills three journalists in Lebanon; Houthis claim first attack on Israel
On March 28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed three journalists, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil. Concurrently, Houthis in Yemen launched missile attacks on Israel, but no Israeli strikes on Yemen were reported, maintaining Lebanon as the second country struck.
Israeli strike kills three journalists in Lebanon amid missile attack from Yemen
On March 28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes in Lebanon killed three journalists, coinciding with missile attacks from Yemen's Houthis on Israel. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, contributing to the count of countries struck.
Israeli strikes kill three journalists in Lebanon amid Houthi missile attacks on Israel
5 jumps to 35%6%
On 28 March 2026, Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Lebanon, killing three journalists, while Yemen's Houthis launched missile attacks on Israel. This demonstrated Israel's military actions extending beyond Iran to Lebanon and Yemen, increasing the count of countries struck.
Israeli strike kills three journalists in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
On March 28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon killed three journalists, confirming active Israeli strikes on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market's assessment of multiple countries being struck.
Yemen's Houthis Resume Ballistic Missile Attacks Against Israel
The Houthis officially joined the 2026 Iran war by launching ballistic missiles at Israel, raising the prospect of direct Israeli retaliatory strikes on Yemen.
Israel conducts airstrikes in Lebanon killing journalists; Yemen's Houthis launch first missile attack on Israel
6 plunges to 9%20%
On March 28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes killed three journalists in Lebanon and targeted Hezbollah infrastructure, while Yemen's Houthi rebels launched their first missile attack on Israel, marking new countries involved in the conflict and raising the strike count.
Israeli airstrike kills three journalists in Lebanon amid regional conflict
An Israeli airstrike in southern Lebanon killed three journalists, indicating Israeli military operations on Lebanese soil. This event confirmed strikes beyond Iran, contributing to the count of different countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli airstrike kills three journalists in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
4 dips to 33%3%
On March 28, 2026, Israeli airstrikes in southern Lebanon resulted in the deaths of three journalists, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil. This adds Lebanon as a third country struck by Israel in 2026.
Air Strikes Target PMF Headquarters at Kirkuk Airport in Iraq
5 drops to 23%8%
Airstrikes blamed on the US and Israel hit the Popular Mobilisation Forces (PMF) headquarters in Kirkuk, Iraq, killing three fighters and two police officers. This further solidified Iraq as a confirmed target country.
Houthis in Yemen launch first missile attack on Israel during 2026 war
4 drops to 39%9%
The Yemen-based Houthi movement launched ballistic missile and drone attacks targeting Israel, marking their first direct involvement in the conflict and expanding the geographic scope of hostilities.
Houthis in Yemen claim first missile and drone attacks on Israel
4 drops to 44%6%
The Houthi movement in Yemen launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel, marking Israeli strikes on Yemeni soil and expanding the conflict to a third country. This was the first confirmed Houthi attack on Israel during the 2026 conflict.
Israeli airstrikes target Iranian-backed militias in Iraq
5 jumps to 34%6%
Following the outbreak of the 2026 Iran war, Israel and the United States conducted airstrikes against Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, targeting militia headquarters, checkpoints, and senior commanders. These strikes expanded the conflict to Iraqi territory, marking another country where Israel initiated strikes.
US and Israeli airstrikes target Iranian-backed militias in Iraq
Following the outbreak of the Iran war, US and Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing dozens and confirming Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil, thus increasing the number of countries struck by Israel.
Missiles strike Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after defense failure
4 surges to 49%28%
On March 22, missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona after Israeli air defenses failed to intercept them. Iranian media claimed these strikes were in response to Israeli attacks on Iranian nuclear facilities, highlighting the ongoing tit-for-tat strikes and regional escalation.
Hezbollah fires rockets into Israel, prompting retaliatory Israeli strikes on Jordanian border outposts
7 jumps to 39%11%
Hezbollah’s rocket fire led Israel to strike a Jordanian border outpost, marking a new country being hit and causing a sharp price increase toward the 7‑country outcome.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli cities Arad and Dimona
4 jumps to 49%9%
On March 22, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona, causing damage and casualties. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu vowed to continue striking enemies on all fronts, but no credible reports indicated Israeli strikes on new foreign countries' soil, keeping market expectations stable.
Israel hits Jordanian border outpost after Hezbollah rocket fire
9 rises to 9%1%
Israel launched an air‑strike on a Jordanian border outpost after Hezbollah rockets crossed the border, marking the first Israeli strike inside Jordan.
Israel strikes Iranian terror regime targets in Tehran and Hezbollah in Beirut
On March 20, 2026, the Israel Defence Forces conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian terror regime sites in Tehran and Hezbollah infrastructure in Beirut, Lebanon. This demonstrated Israel's continued military pressure on Iran and its proxies, reinforcing the conflict's regional scope and impacting market expectations of strikes in multiple countries.
Israel Strikes Syrian Government Infrastructure in Southern Syria
4 surges to 44%23%
The Israeli military conducted airstrikes on Syrian army camps and command centers in southern Syria, citing retaliation for attacks on Druze civilians. This reinforced Syria's status as a struck country.
Israel strikes Iranian-backed Hezbollah targets in Beirut and Tehran
5 surges to 33%23%
On March 20, 2026, the Israel Defense Forces conducted strikes on Hezbollah militia positions in Beirut and Iranian terror regime targets in Tehran, expanding the conflict beyond Iran and increasing the count of countries Israel struck in 2026.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Syrian government targets after Druze attacks
4 rises to 6%2%
In response to attacks on Druze civilians in southern Syria, Israel launched airstrikes on Syrian military infrastructure, marking an expansion of Israeli strikes into Syrian territory amid the broader regional conflict.
Israel strikes Syrian government military sites in response to attacks on Druze civilians
4 jumps to 27%9%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Syrian government infrastructure in southern Syria, targeting command centers and weapons storage in retaliation for attacks on Druze civilians. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Syrian soil in 2026.
Israel conducts airstrikes on Iraqi militia bases amid Iran war
5 jumps to 20%5%
Israel and the US conducted airstrikes targeting Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, killing several fighters and escalating the conflict into Iraqi territory, marking Iraq as another country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple towns in southern Lebanon
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes launched a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting towns such as Zibdin and Nabatieh district. This expanded the number of countries where Israel initiated strikes, impacting market expectations.
Israeli warplanes carry out strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
On March 15-16, 2026, Israeli airstrikes targeted multiple towns in southern Lebanon, including Zibdin and Nabatieh district, marking strikes on Lebanese soil and contributing to the count of different countries Israel strikes in 2026.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple locations in southern Lebanon
On March 15-16, 2026, Israeli warplanes launched a series of violent raids in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions. These strikes expanded the number of countries where Israel initiated attacks, affecting market expectations.
Hezbollah launches missile and drone attacks on Israel in retaliation for Iranian leader's death
Hezbollah claimed missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli military facilities near Haifa on March 16, 2026, in response to the killing of Iran's Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked Hezbollah's first such attack since the 2024 war and led to Israeli retaliatory strikes in Lebanon, confirming active conflict on Lebanese soil.
Iranian missile and drone strikes hit US airbases; Israeli raids in southern Lebanon
Iran launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases in the region, while Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions. These actions demonstrated Israel's military operations beyond its borders, including Lebanon, influencing market pricing toward multiple countries being struck.
Israeli airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
On March 15-16, Israeli warplanes launched multiple strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil and increasing the count of countries struck.
Israeli airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon amid Iranian missile and drone strikes on US bases
5 plunges to 8%39%
On March 16, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, while Iran launched missile and drone strikes on US airbases in the region. This event confirmed Israeli strikes outside Iran, increasing the count of countries struck.
Israeli raids reported in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions
Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon towns, targeting Hezbollah military structures. This reinforced Israeli military activity on Lebanese soil, confirming strikes in at least two countries.
Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 20%5%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes launched multiple strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, indicating Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil and expanding the number of countries affected.
Missile and drone strikes on US airbases; Israeli raids in southern Lebanon
Iranian forces launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on US airbases in the region, while Israeli warplanes conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions. This confirmed Israel's military activity in Lebanon, adding to the count of countries struck.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple towns in southern Lebanon amid Iran-US conflict
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, escalating the conflict following US-Israel strikes on Iran. This increased the likelihood of Israel striking Lebanon, impacting market expectations.
Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah sites in southern Lebanon amid Iran-US conflict
4 surges to 46%16%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, including towns such as Zibdin and Nabatieh district. This marked an escalation in Israel's military actions beyond Iran, focusing on Lebanon due to Hezbollah's involvement in the conflict.
Missile and drone strikes on US airbases; Israeli raids in southern Lebanon
7 plunges to 2%42%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps launched coordinated missile and drone strikes on four US airbases in the region, while Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. This expanded the conflict zone and increased the number of countries affected by Israeli strikes.
Israeli Air Force conducts strikes in Iran amid ongoing missile launches
On March 15, 2026, Israeli Air Force F-35I jets carried out strikes in Iran while Iran launched ballistic missiles at Israel, confirming Israel's active military operations on Iranian soil and increasing the likelihood of multiple countries being struck.
Israeli strikes continue targeting Iran's missile program amid ongoing conflict
5 jumps to 39%11%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli Air Force F-35I jets carried out strikes in Iran targeting missile and drone infrastructure, with the IDF stating thousands of targets remain. This sustained campaign reinforced market confidence in multiple strikes on Iranian territory.
Israeli airstrikes target Hezbollah positions in southern Lebanon
4 jumps to 30%12%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, including towns such as Zibdin, Hanin, Kfar, Aita al-Shaab, and Yater. This marked a significant Israeli strike on Lebanese soil, contributing to market expectations of multiple countries being struck.
IDF conducts airstrikes on Iranian targets amid ongoing missile threats
On March 15, 2026, the Israeli Defense Forces carried out airstrikes targeting Iranian military sites, including drone command centers, as Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. This escalation highlighted Israel's direct strikes on Iranian soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israeli Air Force conducts strikes in Iran amid ongoing missile attacks
Israeli Air Force F-35I jets carried out strikes in Iran on March 15, 2026, as Iran launched ballistic missile attacks on Israel and US bases. This confirmed Israel's active strikes on Iranian soil, affecting market pricing for the number of countries struck.
Israeli airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon amid regional conflict escalation
4 jumps to 44%8%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, coinciding with Iranian missile and drone attacks on US airbases. This confirmed Israeli military action on Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
Israeli Air Force conducts strikes in Iran amid ongoing missile launches from Iran
4 jumps to 37%7%
Israeli Air Force F-35I jets carried out strikes in Iran on 15 March 2026, continuing the campaign against Iranian military targets. This followed Iranian ballistic missile launches targeting Israel, escalating the conflict and reinforcing expectations of strikes in multiple countries.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple locations in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 17%9%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon, including towns such as Zibdin, Hanin, Kfar, Aita al-Shaab, and Yater. This confirmed Israeli military action on Lebanese soil, contributing to the market's expectation of strikes in Lebanon.
Israeli strikes reported in multiple southern Lebanese towns
5 drops to 34%5%
Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon towns including Zibdin, Hanin, Kfar, Aita al-Shaab, and Yater, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. This sustained Israeli military activity in Lebanon reinforced the market's view of Lebanon as a struck country.
Israeli airstrikes target Iranian sites amid ongoing missile launches
Israeli Air Force F-35I jets conducted strikes in Iran on March 15, 2026, as Iran launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. This confirmed Israel's continued strikes on Iranian soil, reinforcing the market's expectation of multiple countries being struck.
Israeli airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes launched strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah positions, expanding the geographic scope of Israeli strikes to Lebanon and increasing the number of countries struck.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon amid regional conflict escalation
4 jumps to 39%8%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes carried out a series of strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah military structures, following coordinated missile and drone strikes by Iran and its allies. This marked a significant expansion of Israeli strikes beyond Iran, impacting Lebanon and contributing to market confidence in multiple-country strikes.
Israeli airstrikes reported in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 jumps to 39%11%
On March 15, 2026, Israeli warplanes conducted a series of strikes in southern Lebanon, hitting towns including Zibdin and others, targeting Hezbollah military structures. This expanded the number of countries where Israel conducted strikes beyond Iran.
IDF Conducts Over 7,600 Strikes on Iran in First Two Weeks of War
5 rises to 29%3%
The sheer volume of strikes concentrated heavily on Iran and Lebanon, reducing the likelihood of Israel expanding its air campaign to a high number of other countries.
Israel says it has executed over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 surges to 61%16%
Israel announced it had carried out more than 7,600 strike sorties against Iran, intensifying the conflict and prompting speculation of further strikes on Iran’s regional allies, pushing the market back toward the highest‑probability outcome.
Israel conducts over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 jumps to 41%7%
By March 13, Israel had executed more than 7,600 strikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites. This intense campaign underscored Israel's focus on Iran but also suggested the possibility of strikes extending to other countries involved in the conflict, affecting market probabilities.
Israeli strike kills 12 medical workers in southern Lebanon
An Israeli airstrike targeted a health center run by Hezbollah's health arm in southern Lebanon, killing 12 medical workers. This marked one of the deadliest strikes in Lebanon since the war began, highlighting Israel's targeting of Hezbollah's civilian and military infrastructure. This event reinforced expectations of Israeli strikes in Lebanon.
Israel executes over 7,600 strikes on Iran in 13 days
4 rises to 35%2%
By mid-March, Israel had conducted more than 7,600 strikes on Iranian targets, including nuclear and military sites, confirming the focus of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil. This high operational tempo supported market pricing favoring a lower number of countries struck, mainly Iran and Lebanon.
IDF conducts thousands of strikes on Iran's missile and drone infrastructure
5 rises to 32%4%
By mid-March, the IDF reported over 7,600 strikes on Iran, focusing on missile and drone launchers, significantly degrading Iranian capabilities. This confirmed Israel's extensive military operations on Iranian soil, reinforcing market confidence in strikes on Iran.
Israeli Air Force strikes Iranian UAV array operatives and launchers
5 surges to 28%21%
On March 12, 2026, the IDF reported strikes on Iranian unmanned aerial vehicle arrays and commanders responsible for drone launches toward Israel, intensifying the air campaign against Iran and confirming Israel's extensive strikes on Iranian soil.
Israel intensifies strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon amid ongoing conflict
5 surges to 28%16%
In March 2026, Israel escalated its military campaign against Hezbollah in Lebanon, conducting hundreds of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, command centers, and leadership. This intensified conflict in Lebanon contributed to the broader regional war dynamics and increased the number of countries where Israeli strikes occurred.
Iranian drone strike damages building in Manama, Bahrain
4 jumps to 34%5%
On March 10, an Iranian drone strike caused damage in Manama, Bahrain, marking a strike on a country other than Iran or Israel. This event indicated the regional spread of the conflict and influenced market pricing toward Israel striking multiple countries, as Israel might respond to Iranian actions in Gulf states.
Hezbollah and Iran launch coordinated missile and drone attacks on Israel
4 jumps to 40%11%
On March 10-11, Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy, launched a massive coordinated missile and drone attack on Israel from Lebanon. Israel retaliated with strikes on Beirut's southern suburbs but did not conduct qualifying strikes on Lebanese soil, maintaining the market's focus on Iran as the only country struck by Israel.
Iranian missile strikes hit Israeli cities Arad and Dimona
On March 22, Iranian missiles struck Israeli cities Arad and Dimona, indicating ongoing hostilities but no Israeli strikes on new countries. Israeli response remained focused on Iran, supporting the market's low count of countries struck by Israel.
Iran‑backed Hezbollah fires 200 missiles and drones at Israel
4 jumps to 52%13%
Iran and Hezbollah launched a coordinated barrage of roughly 200 missiles and drones into Israel from Lebanese territory, raising expectations that Israel would retaliate against Lebanon and possibly other neighbouring states, nudging the market upward.
Israeli drone strike hits Bahrain's Seef district causing damage
4 jumps to 36%9%
On March 10, 2026, a drone strike attributed to Israel caused damage in the Seef district of Manama, Bahrain. This represents a confirmed Israeli strike on Bahraini soil, adding a second country to the tally of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli drone strike hits Manama, Bahrain, targeting military site
5 rises to 17%2%
On March 10, 2026, Israel conducted a drone strike in Manama, Bahrain, targeting alleged military infrastructure. This marked a strike on a country beyond Iran and Lebanon, influencing market expectations of the number of countries struck.
Israeli drone strike hits site in Bahrain's capital, Manama
4 jumps to 34%5%
An Israeli drone strike reportedly caused damage in the Seef district of Manama, Bahrain, marking a strike on a Gulf country allied with the US. This event suggested Israel's military actions extended beyond Iran and Lebanon, influencing market pricing towards a higher number of countries struck.
Iranian missile strikes cause damage in Bahrain and other Gulf states
4 dips to 30%4%
Iran launched missile and drone strikes on Bahrain, Kuwait, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE in retaliation, but there is no credible evidence Israel struck these countries. This regional escalation increased market uncertainty but did not shift expectations that Israel would strike multiple countries beyond Iran.
Israeli drone strike damages building in Manama, Bahrain
An Israeli drone strike hit the Seef district in Manama, Bahrain, indicating Israel's strikes extended beyond Iran to other Gulf countries. This event increased the count of countries struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli drone strike damages building in Manama, Bahrain
An Israeli drone strike hit a building in the Seef district of Manama, Bahrain, indicating Israel's military operations extended beyond Iran to other countries in the region. This event influenced market expectations by confirming strikes on multiple countries' soil.
IDF confirms airstrikes on Iranian drone command headquarters
4 jumps to 34%14%
Israeli Defense Forces confirmed airstrikes targeting an IRGC Drone Command Headquarters in Iran, further degrading Iran's drone capabilities and reinforcing Israel's focus on Iranian military infrastructure during the conflict.
Israel launches massive air strikes across Lebanon despite ceasefire
4 jumps to 34%14%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted its most powerful air strikes on Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing hundreds, despite a fragile ceasefire. This expanded Israel's strike footprint to Lebanon, increasing the count of countries struck.
Israel launches large-scale retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon
4 jumps to 18%8%
Following Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on northern Israel, Israeli military conducted extensive air strikes on Hezbollah command centers, weapons depots, and leadership buildings in southern Lebanon, escalating the conflict on multiple fronts and confirming strikes on a second country beyond Iran.
Israel launches large-scale retaliatory strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon
5 rises to 24%3%
Following Hezbollah rocket and drone attacks on Israel in early March, Israel conducted extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah command centers, weapons depots, and leadership sites inside Lebanon, marking significant Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil and increasing the count of countries struck.
Israel launches 100 air strikes in 10 minutes across Lebanon
5 jumps to 38%5%
On April 8, 2026, Israel conducted an unprecedented wave of 100 air strikes across Lebanon within 10 minutes, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure. This escalation in Lebanon expanded the number of countries struck by Israel and significantly impacted market pricing toward higher strike counts.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
6 drops to 4%5%
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli Defense Ministry headquarters and Ben Gurion Airport, escalating tensions and prompting Israeli defensive responses. This event underscored the ongoing conflict and influenced market perceptions of Israeli retaliatory strikes in multiple countries.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
5 jumps to 26%11%
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks on Israeli territory, heightening regional tensions and suggesting potential Israeli retaliatory strikes on multiple countries.
Israel launches a series of strikes on Syrian air bases from Lebanon
6 surges to 28%15%
Israel used drones and missiles launched from Lebanese territory to hit Syrian military installations, marking the first confirmed strike on a third country and pushing the market toward the highest country‑count outcomes.
Israel conducts drone strikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
5 surges to 38%28%
Israel launched drone strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, including areas near Tyre and Al-Housh, killing civilians and militants. These strikes were part of Israel's expanded campaign against Hezbollah during the 2026 Lebanon war, increasing the count of countries struck to include Lebanon.
Israeli airstrikes hit Iranian missile storage sites in Tehran
4 rises to 37%4%
Israeli air force conducted strikes targeting missile storage sites in Tehran, Iran, demonstrating Israel's continued focus on Iranian territory and military infrastructure. No reports indicated Israeli strikes on other countries' soil during this period.
Israel launches drone and missile strikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
5 jumps to 34%8%
In early March, Israel expanded its strikes to southern Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah infrastructure and killing militants. These strikes on Lebanese soil increased the count of countries Israel struck, impacting market prices toward higher outcomes.
IRGC claims missile and drone strikes on Israeli Defense Ministry and Ben Gurion Airport
4 jumps to 24%6%
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps announced missile and drone attacks targeting Israeli government and civilian infrastructure, escalating tensions and prompting Israeli defensive responses. This event underscored the ongoing conflict and influenced market perceptions of Israeli retaliatory strikes.
Israeli airstrikes target multiple locations in southern Lebanon
Israeli drone strikes hit towns in southern Lebanon including Aita al-Shaab and areas near Tyre, killing civilians and militants. These strikes confirm Lebanon as a second country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli Air Force strikes 20 targets in Iran, destroys missile hubs
4 rises to 29%2%
The Israeli Air Force confirmed strikes on multiple military installations in Iran, including ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems, further confirming Israeli military operations on Iranian soil and reinforcing the market's view of strikes in Iran.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in first four days of war
4 jumps to 36%9%
The Israel Defense Forces reported conducting 1,600 strike sorties against Iranian targets, including nuclear and military sites, confirming sustained Israeli airstrikes on Iranian soil. This reinforced market expectations of Israeli strikes on Iran as a key foreign country.
Israeli Air Force strikes 20 targets in Iran, destroys missile hubs
6 rises to 10%2%
The Israeli Air Force confirmed successful strikes on multiple Iranian military installations, including ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems, further degrading Iran's offensive capabilities and confirming Israel's active strikes on Iranian soil.
Israel strikes Syrian command centre after Druze attacks
8 rises to 8%1%
The Israeli Air Force bombed a command centre in southern Syria, its first acknowledged aerial strike on Syrian territory during the 2026 Iran‑War, adding a new country to the count.
Israel strikes Iranian proxy positions in Syria and Iraq with missiles and drones
Israel conducted missile and drone strikes targeting Iranian proxy positions in Syria and Iraq, expanding the geographic scope of its military operations beyond Iran and Lebanon, confirming strikes on these countries' soil.
Israeli Air Force strikes 20 targets in Iran, destroys missile hubs
5 surges to 28%20%
On March 5, 2026, the Israeli Air Force confirmed strikes on multiple military installations in Iran, including ballistic missile launchers and air defense systems, further demonstrating Israel's active military campaign on Iranian soil and reinforcing market expectations of strikes in Iran.
Israeli airstrike kills militants in Iraq amid Iran conflict
4 jumps to 36%8%
Israel conducted airstrikes on Iranian-backed militias in Iraq, including strikes on Popular Mobilization Forces bases, marking confirmed Israeli strikes on Iraqi soil during the 2026 conflict.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days
By March 4, Israel had conducted more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, focusing on missile and drone infrastructure. This confirmed Israel's operational focus on Iran and reinforced market expectations that strikes would be concentrated in one country.
Israel expands air strikes in Lebanon, killing at least 11 people
4 drops to 39%9%
On March 4, 2026, Israel intensified airstrikes in Lebanon, targeting Hezbollah strongholds and areas near Beirut, killing civilians and militants. This escalation reinforced the market's view of Lebanon as a key country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israeli Air Force conducts extensive airstrikes on Iran
4 jumps to 33%6%
The Israeli Air Force publicly released footage of F-16I jets flying to Iran and reported hundreds of sorties with over 5,000 bombs dropped during the conflict. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, significantly impacting market confidence in at least one foreign country being struck.
Israeli Forces Strike Iraqi Troops Near Secret Desert Outpost
4 jumps to 40%7%
To protect a clandestine military outpost in the western Iraqi desert, Israeli forces launched airstrikes against approaching Iraqi military regiments. This confirmed Iraq as another country struck by Israel.
Israel conducts over 1,600 strikes on Iran in four days
4 jumps to 34%7%
By March 4, Israel had conducted more than 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, focusing on missile and drone infrastructure. This demonstrated Israel's intense focus on Iranian territory and reinforced market confidence that Israel's strikes were concentrated in Iran rather than multiple countries.
Israel conducts 1,600 strikes on Iran in first four days of war
4 jumps to 27%9%
By March 4, Israel had carried out 1,600 strike sorties against Iran, targeting military and nuclear sites, while simultaneously defending against Iranian missile and drone attacks. This sustained campaign reinforced the market's view of Israel striking Iranian territory extensively.
Israeli airstrikes hit southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon amid Iran conflict
4 jumps to 40%13%
Israeli airstrikes targeted southern Beirut suburbs, a Hezbollah stronghold, marking Lebanon as a strike location. This escalation followed the outbreak of the Iran war and indicated Lebanon as a second country struck by Israel in 2026.
Hezbollah launches strikes on Israel, sparking 2026 Lebanon war
4 drops to 39%9%
Hezbollah attacked Israel on March 2, 2026, in response to Israeli and US strikes on Iran, leading to an ongoing war in Lebanon. Israel responded with airstrikes and a ground incursion into southern Lebanon, confirming strikes on Lebanese soil and increasing the count of countries struck by Israel.
Hezbollah Fires Rockets Into Israel, Sparking Full-Scale War in Lebanon
Hezbollah entered the conflict in support of Iran, prompting widespread Israeli retaliatory airstrikes and a ground invasion of southern Lebanon, confirming Lebanon as the second major country struck.
Israel conducts large-scale airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon
Following Hezbollah's rocket and drone attacks on Israel in early March, Israeli forces launched extensive airstrikes on Hezbollah command centers, weapons depots, and leadership buildings in southern Lebanon, confirming Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Hezbollah launches rocket attacks on northern Israel, prompting Israeli strikes in Lebanon
4 plunges to 29%15%
Following Hezbollah's rocket attacks on Israel, the IDF launched military operations in Lebanon, including air strikes on Hezbollah infrastructure, confirming Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil and expanding the conflict to a second country.
Hezbollah launches rocket attacks on northern Israel, sparking Lebanon war
5 jumps to 29%12%
Following the assassination of Iran's Supreme Leader, Hezbollah launched rocket attacks on northern Israel, prompting Israel to invade parts of Lebanon and conduct airstrikes. This expanded Israel's military actions to Lebanon, increasing the count of countries struck and influencing market prices.
Israel launches airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in Lebanon
4 surges to 36%26%
Following rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon, Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Beirut and other areas, marking the beginning of the 2026 Lebanon war and expanding Israeli strikes beyond Iran to Lebanese territory.
Israel Launches Widespread Air Strikes and Ground Invasion in Lebanon
4 jumps to 36%6%
Following rocket attacks from Hezbollah, Israel initiated a major military campaign in Lebanon, confirming Lebanon as another target country on the list.
Israel escalates strikes on Hezbollah in Lebanon
4 jumps to 37%13%
Following Iranian missile strikes on Israel, the Israel Defense Forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah infrastructure in southern Lebanon, marking an expansion of Israeli strikes beyond Iran. This raised market expectations for Israel striking multiple countries, including Lebanon.
Hezbollah launches strikes on Israel in response to Iran war
5 jumps to 16%8%
Hezbollah launched strikes against Israel following the US-Israel war on Iran, escalating conflict on Israel's northern border and prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes in Lebanon. This intensified the likelihood of Israel striking Lebanon, affecting market prices for 4 and 5 countries.
Israel launches airstrikes across Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
4 surges to 36%18%
Following rocket and drone attacks from Lebanon, Israel launched airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in southern Beirut and other areas on March 2, 2026. This marked the beginning of the 2026 Lebanon war and expanded Israel's military operations beyond Iran to Lebanese territory.
Hezbollah launches missile and drone strikes on Israel from Lebanon
4 drops to 39%9%
Following Israeli and US strikes on Iran, Hezbollah launched missile and drone attacks targeting northern Israel, escalating the conflict into Lebanon and sparking the 2026 Lebanon war.
Israel retaliates with airstrikes on Lebanon after Hezbollah rocket attacks
Following Hezbollah rocket attacks on Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, marking Israel's second country strike in 2026. This expanded the conflict geographically beyond Iran.
Israel strikes Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut
4 jumps to 18%8%
On March 2, 2026, Israel conducted air strikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, following Hezbollah missile and drone attacks on Israel. This marked a significant Israeli strike on Lebanese soil, impacting market views on the number of countries struck.
Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut after missile and drone attacks
4 jumps to 40%13%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah on Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut on March 2, 2026. This confirmed Lebanon as a country struck by Israel in 2026, reinforcing market expectations of strikes in Lebanon and Iran only.
Israel conducts drone strike on car in Yanouh, Lebanon, killing three including a child
5 drops to 23%8%
A drone strike in the Lebanese village of Yanouh killed three civilians, confirming another Israeli operation on Lebanese territory and reinforcing the market’s view that the count of struck countries remains low.
Iran launches missile attacks on Israel and Gulf countries including Kuwait and Saudi Arabia
4 drops to 26%7%
Iran launched missile and drone attacks on Israel and several Gulf countries including Kuwait, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. Israel responded with strikes on Iranian targets but no confirmed strikes on these Gulf countries' soil by Israel have been reported, keeping the count of countries struck by Israel at four.
Israel and US launch massive joint strikes on Iran
6 plunges to 10%37%
Starting February 28 and continuing into early March 2026, Israel and the US launched a large-scale joint offensive against Iran, involving cruise missiles, drones, and air strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure. This operation escalated the conflict and shaped market views on the number of countries Israel would strike, including Iran.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes after Israeli killing of top officials
5 jumps to 25%10%
Following Israeli airstrikes that killed two top Iranian officials, Iran launched extensive missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and Gulf countries. This retaliation highlighted the ongoing conflict and influenced market expectations of Israeli strikes on multiple countries.
Iran retaliates with missile and drone strikes on Israel and Gulf states
4 jumps to 33%6%
Iran launched ballistic missiles and drones targeting Israel and several Gulf countries including Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE. These retaliatory strikes confirmed Israel's engagement with Iran and the regional scope of the conflict but did not indicate Israeli strikes on these countries.
Israel strikes Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut after missile and drone attacks
4 jumps to 27%9%
Following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah targeting Israel, Israeli forces conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah positions in the southern suburbs of Beirut, Lebanon, on March 1, 2026. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, contributing to the market's probability for Israel striking at least four countries.
Iran launches missiles and drones at five Gulf states in retaliation for Israeli‑US attacks
4 surges to 61%19%
Iran fired missiles and drones at several Gulf states – Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain – in retaliation for the Israeli‑US strikes. The market rallied sharply as the possibility of Israeli strikes on those countries’ territories grew.
Israel strikes Hezbollah targets in Beirut after missile and drone attacks
On March 1, 2026, Israel conducted airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled southern suburbs of Beirut following missile and drone attacks by Hezbollah. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, reinforcing market expectations of strikes in Lebanon but not additional countries.
Israeli strikes on British overseas territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia
5 jumps to 39%5%
In early March 2026, Israeli strikes extended to the British overseas territory of Akrotiri and Dhekelia in Cyprus, targeting Iranian missile launch sites and military assets. This marked an expansion of Israeli military operations to a new country’s soil during the conflict.
Iran launches ballistic missiles and drones at regional targets including Israel
5 jumps to 28%13%
Iran launched approximately 550 ballistic missiles and 1,000 drones targeting Israel and neighboring countries, escalating the conflict and prompting Israeli retaliatory strikes. This increased the likelihood of Israel striking multiple countries, especially Iran and Lebanon.
Israel launches extensive airstrikes on Iran initiating Operation Epic Fury
4 plunges to 27%21%
On February 28, 2026, Israel, alongside the US, began a large-scale military operation against Iran involving thousands of strike sorties targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities. This marked the start of Israel's active strikes on foreign soil in 2026, primarily focused on Iran.
Israel and US launch massive coordinated air and missile strikes on Iranian military targets
4 dips to 44%4%
Israel, alongside the United States, initiated nearly 900 air and missile strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, marking a major escalation and confirming strikes on Iranian soil. This large-scale operation set the stage for the conflict and influenced market expectations for strikes on Iran.
Israel launches massive air and missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure
4 rises to 29%3%
Israel, reportedly alongside the US, initiated nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missile systems, military facilities, and leadership sites, marking a significant escalation in the Iran conflict. This large-scale operation increased the likelihood of Israel striking Iranian soil in 2026.
Israel launches Operation Roaring Lion with precision strikes inside Iran
6 plunges to 8%39%
On February 28, 2026, Israel initiated Operation Roaring Lion, conducting over 900 precision strikes targeting Iranian command-and-control bunkers, missile launchers, and air defense systems. This marked the start of a major escalation and expanded the geographic scope of Israeli strikes to include Iranian territory, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries struck.
US and Israel Launch Massive Joint Airstrikes on Iran
4 dips to 33%3%
The United States and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury / Roaring Lion, launching hundreds of strikes across Iran. This marked the official entry of Iran as a directly struck country in 2026, causing major shifts in the market.
Israel launches Operation Roaring Lion with extensive strikes inside Iran
4 jumps to 27%9%
On February 28, 2026, Israel initiated Operation Roaring Lion, conducting over 900 precision strikes targeting Iranian military assets and command facilities. This marked the start of a major escalation and significantly increased expectations that Israel would strike multiple countries' territories.
Israel and US launch coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure
4 plunges to 10%38%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched a massive wave of coordinated air and missile strikes against Iranian military infrastructure, targeting missile systems, military facilities, and leadership sites. This marked the beginning of the 2026 Iran war and established Iran as a country struck by Israel in 2026.
Israel and US launch joint airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran
5 drops to 37%10%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States initiated coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military and nuclear facilities, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation, codenamed Operation Roaring Lion by Israel, significantly increased the likelihood of Israel striking Iran, impacting market prices for outcomes predicting higher strike counts.
US and Israel launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran, initiating 2026 Iran war
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched joint missile and airstrikes targeting Iranian nuclear and military sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil and set the stage for the conflict, significantly impacting market expectations for the number of countries Israel would strike.
United States and Israel Launch Joint Military Strikes Across Iran
The US and Israel initiated coordinated airstrikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear-linked facilities, and leadership, marking the official start of the 2026 Iran war.
Israel launches massive coordinated air and missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure
5 drops to 34%13%
In late February 2026, Israel, reportedly with US cooperation, launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missile systems and military facilities, marking a major escalation and initiating the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation increased expectations that Israel would strike multiple countries' territories, especially Iran.
Israel and US launch joint airstrikes on Iran
4 drops to 37%11%
On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States conducted coordinated airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, marking the start of Operation Roaring Lion. This confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, influencing market expectations for multiple countries being struck.
Israel and US launch coordinated military strikes against Iran
5 plunges to 33%15%
On February 28, 2026, Israel, in coordination with the United States, launched a massive wave of air and missile strikes targeting Iranian military infrastructure, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation involved nearly 900 strikes and led to Israel declaring a nationwide state of emergency, significantly impacting market expectations for strikes on Iran.
Israel and US launch massive air and missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure
6 plunges to 8%39%
Israel, reportedly alongside the US, initiated nearly 900 coordinated air and missile strikes targeting Iranian missile systems, military facilities, and leadership sites, marking a major escalation and broadening the conflict. This large-scale operation increased expectations of Israel striking multiple countries in 2026.
Israel and US launch strikes on Iran, initiating 2026 Iran war
5 plunges to 8%39%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched coordinated airstrikes on multiple targets across Iran, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale military action against Iranian soil confirmed Israel's strike on a foreign country, impacting market expectations.
Israel and US launch massive airstrikes on Iran targeting military infrastructure
5 plunges to 8%39%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched coordinated air and missile strikes across Iran targeting missile systems, military facilities, and leadership sites, marking a major escalation in the Iran war. This operation increased the market's probability for Israel striking multiple countries, particularly Iran.
US and Israel commence military strikes on Iran under Operation Epic Fury
5 drops to 39%8%
On February 28, 2026, US missiles, drones, and Israeli fighter jets began striking Iranian targets as part of Operation Epic Fury, marking the start of direct Israeli strikes on Iranian soil. This event increased the market's expectation that Israel would strike multiple countries, including Iran.
Israel and U.S. launch massive coordinated strikes on Iranian military targets
6 plunges to 4%43%
On February 28, 2026, Israel initiated Operation Roaring Lion alongside U.S. Operation Epic Fury, conducting over 900 precision strikes targeting Iranian command centers, missile launchers, and air defenses. This marked the outbreak of all-out war and set the stage for subsequent regional strikes, increasing expectations for multiple countries being struck.
US and Israel conduct joint military strikes on Iran
4 rises to 50%2%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel launched coordinated military strikes against Iranian nuclear and military sites, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This event confirmed Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, directly impacting the market's assessment of the number of countries Israel would strike.
Israel and U.S. begin joint air strikes on Iran
7 rises to 7%2%
Israel and the United States launched coordinated air‑strike missions against targets inside Iran, marking the first Israeli strike on Iranian soil in 2026. The operation was publicly presented as “Operation Roaring Lion” by Israel and counted as a strike on a new foreign country.
Iran launches missile and drone strikes against Israel in response to US-Israeli attacks
4 drops to 39%9%
Following the US-Israeli strikes on Iran, Iran launched missile and drone attacks targeting Israel and other regional countries, escalating the conflict and confirming Israel's engagement with Iran as a strike target.
US and Israel begin joint air strikes on Iran, sparking regional war
4 plunges to 4%44%
The United States and Israel launched a joint air campaign against Iran, marking the start of the 2026 Iran‑Israel war. The market sharply fell as traders expected the conflict to stay largely confined to Iran and Israel, reducing the likelihood of strikes on third‑party states.
Israel and US launch extensive airstrikes on Iranian military targets
4 jumps to 46%10%
On February 28, 2026, Israel and the United States launched nearly 900 strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, military infrastructure, and leadership, including the assassination of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei. This marked the start of the 2026 Iran war and significantly increased the likelihood of Israel striking Iran, impacting the market's outlook on the number of countries struck.
US and Israel commence military strikes in Iran, launching Operation Epic Fury
6 plunges to 8%39%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated airstrikes against Iranian targets, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury. This escalation increased the likelihood of Israel striking multiple countries, influencing market expectations.
Israel and US launch coordinated airstrikes on Iran
6 plunges to 8%39%
On 28 February 2026, Israel and the United States began a series of coordinated air and missile strikes on Iranian military infrastructure, marking the start of the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation targeted missile systems, military facilities, and leadership sites, significantly escalating the conflict and increasing the number of countries involved.
US and Israel launch joint military strikes on Iran
4 plunges to 28%20%
On February 28, 2026, the US and Israel began coordinated military strikes on Iran, initiating the 2026 Iran war. This large-scale operation involved missiles, drones, and fighter jets targeting Iranian military and nuclear facilities, setting the stage for extensive Israeli airstrikes in the region and influencing market expectations of Israeli strikes on multiple countries.
US and Israel launch nearly 900 strikes on Iranian targets
6 plunges to 9%38%
On February 28, 2026, US and Israeli forces launched a massive wave of strikes targeting Iranian missiles, air defenses, and military infrastructure, marking the start of Operation Epic Fury and significantly escalating the conflict. This event raised expectations of Israeli strikes on Iranian soil, impacting market prices towards higher strike counts.
US and Israel launch coordinated military strikes on Iran
4 plunges to 28%20%
On February 27-28, 2026, the US and Israel initiated Operation Epic Fury, conducting extensive missile and drone strikes on Iranian nuclear and military facilities. This marked the start of a large-scale Israeli air campaign focused on Iranian territory, setting the stage for the high volume of strikes reported in the following weeks.
Israel warns of imminent strikes on two villages in eastern Bekaa Valley
Israel’s Arabic‑language spokesman posted warnings that the military would strike two villages in the Bekaa Valley, signaling a likely upcoming operation on Lebanese soil and prompting market participants to lower expectations for higher country counts.
U.S. President Trump expected to announce Board of Peace for Gaza
5 dips to 13%2%
Anticipation of a diplomatic breakthrough in Gaza reduced expectations of further cross‑border strikes, pulling the market down as traders saw less incentive for Israel to open new fronts.
Israel Strikes Four Syria-Lebanon Border Crossings
4 rises to 37%4%
Israel launched airstrikes targeting four border crossings on the Syria-Lebanon border, alleging they were used by Hezbollah to smuggle weapons. This early action confirmed strikes on both Lebanese and Syrian territory.
Israel conducts drone strike on a Hamas ally in southern Lebanon
5 jumps to 15%8%
An Israeli drone killed three people, including a child, in the village of Yanouh, targeting a local official linked to Hamas. The incident suggested Israel might expand strikes to other neighboring states, lifting the market again.
Israel launches air strikes against southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah
4 drops to 39%9%
Israel conducted airstrikes in southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, following evacuation warnings to local villages. This marked a continuation of Israeli military actions in Lebanon despite a ceasefire agreement.
Israel announces temporary ceasefire on Lebanon front after U.N. pressure
5 plunges to 7%21%
Following a U.N. resolution urging restraint, Israel halted major air operations in Lebanon for a week, causing the market to drop as the likelihood of new foreign strike targets fell.
Israel launches strikes in Gaza testing ceasefire, killing 24
Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas militants in Gaza, testing the ceasefire and killing at least 24 people. This continued military activity influenced market views on Israel's strike patterns and potential targets in 2026.
Israel strikes a Hezbollah‑run health centre in Burj Qalaouiyah, Lebanon
5 surges to 28%22%
A drone strike hit a Hezbollah‑affiliated medical facility, killing 12 health workers. Targeting civilian‑linked Hezbollah infrastructure heightened concerns of broader regional strikes, nudging prices upward again.
Experts warn of potential Israeli strikes on Iran in 2026
8 plunges to 2%48%
European diplomats and analysts indicated Israel might strike Iran again in 2026 if uranium enrichment activities resume, shaping market expectations about the number of countries Israel could target.
Israel launches new wave of air attacks on Lebanon, straining fragile truce
10 drops to 0%5%
Israel carried out multiple waves of airstrikes targeting Hezbollah special operations training compounds, maintaining near-daily pressure on the ceasefire.
Israel intensifies air attacks on Lebanon, straining fragile truce
6 dips to 3%2%
Israel launched a new wave of air attacks on Lebanon targeting Hezbollah infrastructure, raising fears of expanded military campaign. This escalation increased the likelihood of strikes on Lebanese soil in 2026.
Israel approves $35 billion defense budget for 2026 despite ceasefire
7 plunges to 2%42%
Israel's cabinet approved a substantial defense budget increase for 2026, signaling continued military preparedness and potential for strikes beyond current ceasefire agreements. This budget approval affected market sentiment about the likelihood of multiple country strikes.
Israel launches airstrikes in Gaza amid ceasefire violations
4 drops to 10%8%
Israel launched airstrikes against Hamas militants in Gaza in response to ceasefire violations, killing multiple Palestinians. These strikes reinforced the ongoing conflict in Gaza, affecting market expectations for strikes in Palestinian territories.
Israel strikes southern Lebanon after first direct talks in decades
6 dips to 3%4%
Less than a day after holding direct civilian-envoy talks, Israel launched new airstrikes in southern Lebanon, citing ceasefire violations by Hezbollah.
Israeli weapons makers showcase new tech after two years of war
9 plunges to 4%42%
Israel revealed new military technologies including drones and laser defense systems, focusing on defense and surveillance rather than offensive strikes on multiple countries. This reinforced market expectations of limited Israeli strikes abroad in 2026.
Israel plans to deploy Iron Beam laser defense system by year-end
8 plunges to 2%48%
Israel announced deployment of the Iron Beam laser system to intercept missiles and drones, emphasizing defensive capabilities amid ongoing conflict but not indicating new offensive strikes on foreign soil. This contributed to market consensus of fewer Israeli strikes abroad.
U.S.‑brokered talks between Israel and Lebanon reduce immediate strike risk
5 dips to 6%4%
Direct diplomatic talks, mediated by the United States, were held in Beirut, leading both sides to pause large‑scale air operations. The market retreated sharply as traders expected fewer new foreign strike targets.
Israel conducts airstrike in southern Lebanon killing civilians
5 dips to 7%2%
An Israeli strike in the village of Habboush near Nabatiyeh killed six civilians, reinforcing the perception that Israel is expanding its campaign into Lebanon and further confirming Lebanon as a target country.
Israel kills 13 in Syria airstrikes following failed ground incursion
9 plunges to 5%41%
Israeli forces launched deadly airstrikes on the Syrian town of Beit Jinn after local residents resisted a ground military incursion, marking a significant escalation in Syria.
IDF announces reservist duty changes amid regional tensions
6 plunges to 3%44%
The IDF announced reservists would serve less but train more in 2026, reflecting a recalibration of military readiness amid ongoing tensions with neighbors including Iran, Syria, Lebanon, and Qatar. This influenced market expectations about Israel's military engagement scope.
Israel conducts airstrikes in southern Lebanon after first direct talks in decades
5 plunges to 7%40%
Israel launched airstrikes in southern Lebanon shortly after historic direct talks with Lebanon, signaling continued military pressure despite diplomatic efforts. This event affected market views on the number of countries Israel might strike, reinforcing Lebanon as a likely target.
Israel kills top Hezbollah official in first attack on Beirut in months
11 plunges to 6%41%
An Israeli airstrike in Beirut's southern suburbs killed Hezbollah's chief of staff, Haitham Ali al-Tabtabai, raising fears of a major escalation despite the ceasefire.
Israel kills top Hezbollah official in Beirut airstrike
6 dips to 5%2%
Israel conducted an airstrike in southern Beirut targeting a senior Hezbollah official, killing him despite a ceasefire. This action underscored Israel's willingness to strike Lebanese territory, influencing market pricing for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel strikes multiple sites in southern and eastern Lebanon, including Sidon
5 plunges to 9%38%
The Israeli Air Force hit a commercial building in Sidon and other locations in the Bekaa Valley, marking the first confirmed strike on Lebanese territory in the analysis window and adding Lebanon to the count of countries targeted.
Israeli airstrikes kill 33 in Gaza amid ceasefire tensions
4 plunges to 18%30%
Israeli airstrikes in Gaza killed 33 people, including civilians, marking a serious escalation since the ceasefire. This violence underscored ongoing conflict risks and influenced market expectations about Israel's military actions in 2026, particularly regarding strikes outside Gaza.
Israeli airstrike kills 13 in Palestinian refugee camp in Lebanon
6 dips to 7%3%
An Israeli drone strike targeted a Hamas training compound in the Ein el-Hilweh refugee camp near Sidon, Lebanon, killing 13 people. This marked a significant escalation in Israeli strikes on Lebanese soil, impacting market expectations for strikes in Lebanon.
Israel Aerospace Industries delivers Arrow 3 missile system to Germany
6 plunges to 5%42%
Israel completed delivery of the Arrow 3 missile defense system to Germany ahead of schedule, highlighting Israel's focus on defense exports and missile defense rather than offensive strikes on multiple countries. This reinforced market expectations of limited Israeli strikes abroad.
Israel conducts large‑scale airstrikes on southern Lebanon targeting Hezbollah sites
5 plunges to 10%37%
Israel launched dozens of drone and missile strikes on villages in southern Lebanon, killing at least ten people. The escalation raised fears of further strikes beyond Lebanon, pushing the market toward higher country‑count outcomes.
Israel warns US of potential Iranian missile strike disguised as drill
4 plunges to 18%30%
Israel issued warnings to the US about Iran possibly using a missile launch drill as cover for an actual strike, raising regional tensions but not indicating Israeli offensive strikes on multiple countries. This heightened alert contributed to market uncertainty but did not support expectations of many Israeli strikes abroad.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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