**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C high for Tokyo on September 5, reflecting JMA observations and model consensus under persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and widespread rain that limited diurnal heating.** Current surface reports and forecast soundings show afternoon temperatures peaking near 25°C amid high humidity and precipitation, consistent with climatological norms for early September transition periods when subtropical moisture suppresses maxima. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF align on this range, with minimal spread due to the entrenched synoptic pattern. A brief clearing or stronger insolation could push readings to 26°C, but the probability remains low given ongoing moisture and the timing of peak heating. Official JMA station data will determine resolution, underscoring how real-time observational thresholds shape market-implied odds in temperature contracts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Tokyo on September 5?
Highest temperature in Tokyo on September 5?
25°C 99.6%
26°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
$92,442 Обс.
$92,442 Обс.
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
100%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
<1%
29°C
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
25°C 99.6%
26°C <1%
21°C or below <1%
22°C <1%
$92,442 Обс.
$92,442 Обс.
Sep 5, 2026
21°C or below
$1,998 Обс.
<1%
22°C
$10,332 Обс.
<1%
23°C
$15,521 Обс.
<1%
24°C
$13,350 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$9,531 Обс.
100%
26°C
$9,418 Обс.
<1%
27°C
$7,042 Обс.
<1%
28°C
$4,225 Обс.
<1%
29°C
$1,135 Обс.
<1%
30°C
$2,118 Обс.
<1%
31°C or higher
$17,908 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C high for Tokyo on September 5, reflecting JMA observations and model consensus under persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and widespread rain that limited diurnal heating.**
Current surface reports and forecast soundings show afternoon temperatures peaking near 25°C amid high humidity and precipitation, consistent with climatological norms for early September transition periods when subtropical moisture suppresses maxima. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF align on this range, with minimal spread due to the entrenched synoptic pattern. A brief clearing or stronger insolation could push readings to 26°C, but the probability remains low given ongoing moisture and the timing of peak heating. Official JMA station data will determine resolution, underscoring how real-time observational thresholds shape market-implied odds in temperature contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$92,442Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C high for Tokyo on September 5, reflecting JMA observations and model consensus under persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and widespread rain that limited diurnal heating.**
Current surface reports and forecast soundings show afternoon temperatures peaking near 25°C amid high humidity and precipitation, consistent with climatological norms for early September transition periods when subtropical moisture suppresses maxima. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF align on this range, with minimal spread due to the entrenched synoptic pattern. A brief clearing or stronger insolation could push readings to 26°C, but the probability remains low given ongoing moisture and the timing of peak heating. Official JMA station data will determine resolution, underscoring how real-time observational thresholds shape market-implied odds in temperature contracts.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjtt
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$92,442Дата завершення
Sep 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 3, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rjttВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Trader consensus heavily favors a 25°C high for Tokyo on September 5, reflecting JMA observations and model consensus under persistent cloud cover, northeasterly flow, and widespread rain that limited diurnal heating.** Current surface reports and forecast soundings show afternoon temperatures peaking near 25°C amid high humidity and precipitation, consistent with climatological norms for early September transition periods when subtropical moisture suppresses maxima. Recent model runs from GFS and ECMWF align on this range, with minimal spread due to the entrenched synoptic pattern. A brief clearing or stronger insolation could push readings to 26°C, but the probability remains low given ongoing moisture and the timing of peak heating. Official JMA station data will determine resolution, underscoring how real-time observational thresholds shape market-implied odds in temperature contracts.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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