Recent forecast models point to a high of 28–29°C in Shanghai on August 10 as the dominant driver of market-implied odds near 76% combined for those two outcomes. Typhoon Dolphin’s approach has increased cloud cover, precipitation, and onshore flow across the Yangtze River estuary, limiting daytime insolation and convective heating that would otherwise push temperatures toward seasonal averages of 31–35°C. Steering patterns and landfall timing near Zhejiang keep the region under a stable, moist air mass that favors modest maxima, with model consensus favoring 28–29°C amid widespread overcast skies and potential flash flooding. Updated NHC and CMA guidance through the next 24 hours will clarify any intensification or track shifts capable of altering boundary-layer conditions before resolution.