Recent forecasts from Météo-France and ensemble models point to a high of 31–34°C in Paris on August 10 under building high pressure, clear skies, and light northerly flow that favors daytime heating without significant cloud cover or marine influence. This setup aligns with the market’s heavy weighting toward 32°C (52.5%) and 33°C (29.0%), reflecting model consensus around a modest positive temperature anomaly relative to the late-summer climatological average of ~25°C. Saharan dust advection may slightly reduce insolation but is unlikely to prevent reaching the low 30s, while any timing shift in the ridge axis or added boundary-layer moisture could nudge the peak one degree lower or higher. Updated model runs and official briefings over the next 24 hours will refine these probabilities before resolution.