**Active southwest monsoon conditions, including cloud cover, high humidity, and heavy rainfall expected across eastern Uttar Pradesh, are the main factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow and driving trader consensus toward 29–31°C on September 7.** Official forecasts from sources such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and numerical models indicate widespread thunderstorms and 15–25 mm of rain on or around that date, which reduces incoming solar radiation and prevents strong daytime heating. Recent observations show Lucknow and surrounding districts already experiencing above-normal rainfall in early September, with persistent moisture keeping surface temperatures moderated compared to drier pre-monsoon periods. Historical September climatology for the region places average daily highs near 32–34°C, but current model consensus and real-time satellite imagery of the monsoon trough point to a cooler outcome this week. Market-implied odds (31°C at 39%, 30°C at 27%, 29°C at 22%) align closely with these dynamics, as traders weigh the high probability of rain-suppressed maxima against the small chance of brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike. New IMD updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Lucknow on September 7?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on September 7?
31°C 38%
30°C 28%
29°C 23%
32°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
24°C or below
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
3%
27°C
3%
28°C
8%
29°C
23%
30°C
28%
31°C
38%
32°C
10%
33°C
7%
34°C or higher
5%
31°C 38%
30°C 28%
29°C 23%
32°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Sep 7, 2026
24°C or below
$0 Обс.
1%
25°C
$0 Обс.
1%
26°C
$0 Обс.
3%
27°C
$0 Обс.
3%
28°C
$20 Обс.
8%
29°C
$0 Обс.
23%
30°C
$17 Обс.
28%
31°C
$53 Обс.
38%
32°C
$0 Обс.
10%
33°C
$0 Обс.
7%
34°C or higher
$0 Обс.
5%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Active southwest monsoon conditions, including cloud cover, high humidity, and heavy rainfall expected across eastern Uttar Pradesh, are the main factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow and driving trader consensus toward 29–31°C on September 7.**
Official forecasts from sources such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and numerical models indicate widespread thunderstorms and 15–25 mm of rain on or around that date, which reduces incoming solar radiation and prevents strong daytime heating. Recent observations show Lucknow and surrounding districts already experiencing above-normal rainfall in early September, with persistent moisture keeping surface temperatures moderated compared to drier pre-monsoon periods.
Historical September climatology for the region places average daily highs near 32–34°C, but current model consensus and real-time satellite imagery of the monsoon trough point to a cooler outcome this week. Market-implied odds (31°C at 39%, 30°C at 27%, 29°C at 22%) align closely with these dynamics, as traders weigh the high probability of rain-suppressed maxima against the small chance of brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike.
New IMD updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ET
Обсяг
$90Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Active southwest monsoon conditions, including cloud cover, high humidity, and heavy rainfall expected across eastern Uttar Pradesh, are the main factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow and driving trader consensus toward 29–31°C on September 7.**
Official forecasts from sources such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and numerical models indicate widespread thunderstorms and 15–25 mm of rain on or around that date, which reduces incoming solar radiation and prevents strong daytime heating. Recent observations show Lucknow and surrounding districts already experiencing above-normal rainfall in early September, with persistent moisture keeping surface temperatures moderated compared to drier pre-monsoon periods.
Historical September climatology for the region places average daily highs near 32–34°C, but current model consensus and real-time satellite imagery of the monsoon trough point to a cooler outcome this week. Market-implied odds (31°C at 39%, 30°C at 27%, 29°C at 22%) align closely with these dynamics, as traders weigh the high probability of rain-suppressed maxima against the small chance of brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike.
New IMD updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 7 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilk
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$90Дата завершення
Sep 7, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 5, 2026, 12:56 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=vilkВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Active southwest monsoon conditions, including cloud cover, high humidity, and heavy rainfall expected across eastern Uttar Pradesh, are the main factors capping maximum temperatures in Lucknow and driving trader consensus toward 29–31°C on September 7.** Official forecasts from sources such as the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and numerical models indicate widespread thunderstorms and 15–25 mm of rain on or around that date, which reduces incoming solar radiation and prevents strong daytime heating. Recent observations show Lucknow and surrounding districts already experiencing above-normal rainfall in early September, with persistent moisture keeping surface temperatures moderated compared to drier pre-monsoon periods. Historical September climatology for the region places average daily highs near 32–34°C, but current model consensus and real-time satellite imagery of the monsoon trough point to a cooler outcome this week. Market-implied odds (31°C at 39%, 30°C at 27%, 29°C at 22%) align closely with these dynamics, as traders weigh the high probability of rain-suppressed maxima against the small chance of brief clearing that could allow a 32°C spike. New IMD updates and refined model runs over the next 48 hours will likely refine these probabilities ahead of market resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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