xAI continues rapid iteration on its Grok large language models, with Grok 4.3 released to the API in early May 2026 featuring improved tool-calling and a 1-million-token context window. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model had completed training and would reach release in roughly three to four weeks after supplemental training and alignment, placing a potential Grok 4.4 launch window in mid-June. Earlier April timelines for a 1-trillion-parameter variant faced reported delays, with some sources noting a possible skip in favor of the larger model. Traders monitor xAI announcements and Musk updates for confirmation amid competition from other frontier labs and xAI’s expanding Colossus training cluster.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGrok 4.4 released by...?
Grok 4.4 released by...?
$15,535 Обс.
Jun 30, 2026
June 15
7%
June 30
25%
July 31
46%
$15,535 Обс.
June 15
$4,487 Обс.
7%
June 30
$9,720 Обс.
25%
July 31
$0 Обс.
46%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI continues rapid iteration on its Grok large language models, with Grok 4.3 released to the API in early May 2026 featuring improved tool-calling and a 1-million-token context window. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model had completed training and would reach release in roughly three to four weeks after supplemental training and alignment, placing a potential Grok 4.4 launch window in mid-June. Earlier April timelines for a 1-trillion-parameter variant faced reported delays, with some sources noting a possible skip in favor of the larger model. Traders monitor xAI announcements and Musk updates for confirmation amid competition from other frontier labs and xAI’s expanding Colossus training cluster.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ET
Обсяг
$15,535Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.xAI continues rapid iteration on its Grok large language models, with Grok 4.3 released to the API in early May 2026 featuring improved tool-calling and a 1-million-token context window. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model had completed training and would reach release in roughly three to four weeks after supplemental training and alignment, placing a potential Grok 4.4 launch window in mid-June. Earlier April timelines for a 1-trillion-parameter variant faced reported delays, with some sources noting a possible skip in favor of the larger model. Traders monitor xAI announcements and Musk updates for confirmation amid competition from other frontier labs and xAI’s expanding Colossus training cluster.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if xAI's Grok 4.4 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.4 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.4, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.3, similar to the progression from Grok 4 to Grok 4.1 (e.g., Grok 4.5, Grok 4.6, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by xAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from xAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$15,535Дата завершення
Jun 30, 2026Ринок відкрито
May 22, 2026, 12:34 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...xAI continues rapid iteration on its Grok large language models, with Grok 4.3 released to the API in early May 2026 featuring improved tool-calling and a 1-million-token context window. Elon Musk stated on May 17 that the 1.5-trillion-parameter V9 model had completed training and would reach release in roughly three to four weeks after supplemental training and alignment, placing a potential Grok 4.4 launch window in mid-June. Earlier April timelines for a 1-trillion-parameter variant faced reported delays, with some sources noting a possible skip in favor of the larger model. Traders monitor xAI announcements and Musk updates for confirmation amid competition from other frontier labs and xAI’s expanding Colossus training cluster.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання