Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоGreater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Greater Manchester Mayoral Election: Most 1st Preference Votes
Bev Craig 95.5%
Sian Astley 2.6%
Dan Barker 1.0%
Geraldine Coggins <1%
$59,483 Обс.
$59,483 Обс.
Bev Craig
96%
Sian Astley
3%
Dan Barker
1%
Geraldine Coggins
1%
Hannah Spencer
1%
Arooj Shah
<1%
Marlon Scott West
<1%
Jake Austin
<1%
Kate Green
<1%
Paul Dennett
<1%
Nick Buckley
<1%
Laura Evans
<1%
Bev Craig 95.5%
Sian Astley 2.6%
Dan Barker 1.0%
Geraldine Coggins <1%
$59,483 Обс.
$59,483 Обс.
Bev Craig
96%
Sian Astley
3%
Dan Barker
1%
Geraldine Coggins
1%
Hannah Spencer
1%
Arooj Shah
<1%
Marlon Scott West
<1%
Jake Austin
<1%
Kate Green
<1%
Paul Dennett
<1%
Nick Buckley
<1%
Laura Evans
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Ринок відкрито: Jun 25, 2026, 2:25 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election.
If two candidates tie for receiving the greatest number of valid first preference votes in the specified election, this market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the specified election.
If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting; however, if there is any ambiguity in the results, this market will resolve according to official information from Greater Manchester Combined Authority (https://www.gmelects.org.uk/).
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Arooj Shah leads the market at 62.5% for the largest share of first-preference votes in the 30 July 2026 Greater Manchester mayoral by-election, reflecting trader assessments of her Labour candidacy and recent profile after stepping down as Oldham council leader following the May local elections that produced no overall control. Other named contenders such as Bev Craig, Geraldine Coggins, Paul Dennett, Kate Green and additional declared or potential entrants sit lower, consistent with fragmented opposition from Reform UK, Greens and independents amid Labour’s historical dominance in the region. The short campaign timeline, voter registration deadlines and supplementary vote mechanics heighten focus on first-preference consolidation among major parties, while the vacancy created by Andy Burnham’s parliamentary move adds uncertainty over turnout and vote splitting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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