Ongoing US-Iran military operations in the Persian Gulf, centered on countering Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on naval, missile, and oil infrastructure, form the main driver of trader positioning on islands including Farsi. US Central Command raids since July 2026 have targeted sites on Kharg (Iran’s primary oil export terminal), Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, and Larak, disrupting IRGC coastal defenses and fast-attack capabilities while prompting Iranian statements on retained strategic reach from the mainland. Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost historically used for shipping harassment, has not featured in confirmed recent strikes. Low market-implied probabilities for any specified island shifting control by late August or September reflect the absence of ground operations or confirmed seizures to date, alongside the high operational and escalation risks of such actions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could alter assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$174,582 Обс.
Aug 31, 2026
August 31
<1%
$174,582 Обс.
August 31
$165,689 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military operations in the Persian Gulf, centered on countering Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on naval, missile, and oil infrastructure, form the main driver of trader positioning on islands including Farsi. US Central Command raids since July 2026 have targeted sites on Kharg (Iran’s primary oil export terminal), Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, and Larak, disrupting IRGC coastal defenses and fast-attack capabilities while prompting Iranian statements on retained strategic reach from the mainland. Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost historically used for shipping harassment, has not featured in confirmed recent strikes. Low market-implied probabilities for any specified island shifting control by late August or September reflect the absence of ground operations or confirmed seizures to date, alongside the high operational and escalation risks of such actions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could alter assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ET
Обсяг
$174,582Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran military operations in the Persian Gulf, centered on countering Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on naval, missile, and oil infrastructure, form the main driver of trader positioning on islands including Farsi. US Central Command raids since July 2026 have targeted sites on Kharg (Iran’s primary oil export terminal), Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, and Larak, disrupting IRGC coastal defenses and fast-attack capabilities while prompting Iranian statements on retained strategic reach from the mainland. Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost historically used for shipping harassment, has not featured in confirmed recent strikes. Low market-implied probabilities for any specified island shifting control by late August or September reflect the absence of ground operations or confirmed seizures to date, alongside the high operational and escalation risks of such actions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could alter assessments.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Farsi Island is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over Farsi Island, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control over the island.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over Farsi Island is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$174,582Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jul 20, 2026, 9:14 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran military operations in the Persian Gulf, centered on countering Iranian control of the Strait of Hormuz through strikes on naval, missile, and oil infrastructure, form the main driver of trader positioning on islands including Farsi. US Central Command raids since July 2026 have targeted sites on Kharg (Iran’s primary oil export terminal), Greater Tunb, Abu Musa, Qeshm, and Larak, disrupting IRGC coastal defenses and fast-attack capabilities while prompting Iranian statements on retained strategic reach from the mainland. Farsi Island, a small restricted IRGC Navy outpost historically used for shipping harassment, has not featured in confirmed recent strikes. Low market-implied probabilities for any specified island shifting control by late August or September reflect the absence of ground operations or confirmed seizures to date, alongside the high operational and escalation risks of such actions. Scheduled diplomatic or military developments within the resolution windows could alter assessments.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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