Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоFarsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
Farsi, Hengam, Hormuz or Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by...?
$111,814 Обс.
Sep 30, 2026
August 31
1%
September 30
2%
$111,814 Обс.
August 31
$39,965 Обс.
1%
September 30
$71,849 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ET
Обсяг
$111,814Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if at least one of the specified islands is no longer under Iranian control by the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
The islands that will be considered for resolution are: Farsi Island, Hengam Island, Hormuz Island and Kharg Island.
"No longer under the control of Iran" means that Iran no longer exercises primary governmental or military control over at least one of the specified islands, and another state, occupying force, or internationally backed authority has established control.
Temporary raids, isolated landings, special operations, bombardment, sabotage, naval presence offshore, or temporary disruption of Iranian activity will not qualify on their own.
An announcement, threat, or claim that Iran has lost control will not qualify without actual control being established.
If control changes pursuant to a negotiated settlement, ceasefire term, surrender, or transfer agreement, this will qualify only once actual control has been established on the island.
If control over at least one of the specified islands is contested, unclear, disputed, or not sufficiently established by the resolution date, this will not qualify, and the market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source will be official statements from the relevant governments and militaries, along with a consensus of credible reporting.
Обсяг
$111,814Дата завершення
Oct 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 4, 2026, 8:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Ongoing US-Iran naval tensions and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz remain the dominant driver of trader positioning on these islands' control. Kharg Island, handling roughly 90% of Iran's crude exports, has seen repeated targeting of military assets alongside episodic VLCC loadings that resumed in mid-August after a month-long blockade-related halt, with volumes still well below pre-conflict norms. Disruptions have compressed Iranian flows—down as much as 84% in May—elevating tanker insurance premia, dark-fleet activity, and global energy price volatility while leaving ownership unchanged. Diplomatic talks with Oman on a temporary corridor and Iranian assertions of sovereignty continue without resolution, keeping market-implied odds of territorial loss low amid stalled negotiations and no observed occupation.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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