Monza’s high-speed layout and history of sudden incidents at corners like Parabolica have long supported elevated safety-car probabilities, with traders pricing Yes near 70% ahead of the 2026 event. The 2026 cars’ power-unit demands and reduced downforce on long straights increased the chance of lock-ups or loss of control under braking, while pre-race practice showed multiple off-track moments. Recent form at similar venues and the circuit’s narrow runoff areas further amplified expectations of a full-course neutralisation, even as one-stop strategies and tyre management remained central variables. The wisdom of crowds reflected in the pricing aligned with Monza’s documented tendency for early-race disruptions.