Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest 2026 Senate toss-up at 55 percent implied probability, reflecting its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in a state Trump carried by under two points in 2024. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with Republican Mike Rogers following El-Sayed’s narrow August primary win, while Cook Political Report and other raters list the contest as a toss-up. Texas ranks second at 40 percent after Cook shifted the race to toss-up status amid tight surveys between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, aided by Talarico’s fundraising edge. Alaska, Maine, and Ohio trail as toss-ups due to stronger Republican structural leans or incumbency advantages for Dan Sullivan, Susan Collins, and Jon Husted, respectively, despite competitive polling and candidate matchups involving Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown. Iowa remains a longer shot. These probabilities track recent rating upgrades and primary outcomes that expanded Democrats’ viable pickup opportunities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоDems' best tossup Senate race?
Dems' best tossup Senate race?
Michigan 55%
Alaska 19%
Maine 16%
Texas 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
55%
Alaska
19%
Maine
17%
Texas
9%
Ohio
4%
Iowa
3%
Michigan 55%
Alaska 19%
Maine 16%
Texas 9%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Michigan
$2,587 Обс.
55%
Alaska
$201 Обс.
19%
Maine
$195 Обс.
17%
Texas
$109 Обс.
9%
Ohio
$273 Обс.
4%
Iowa
$109 Обс.
3%
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest 2026 Senate toss-up at 55 percent implied probability, reflecting its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in a state Trump carried by under two points in 2024. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with Republican Mike Rogers following El-Sayed’s narrow August primary win, while Cook Political Report and other raters list the contest as a toss-up. Texas ranks second at 40 percent after Cook shifted the race to toss-up status amid tight surveys between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, aided by Talarico’s fundraising edge. Alaska, Maine, and Ohio trail as toss-ups due to stronger Republican structural leans or incumbency advantages for Dan Sullivan, Susan Collins, and Jon Husted, respectively, despite competitive polling and candidate matchups involving Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown. Iowa remains a longer shot. These probabilities track recent rating upgrades and primary outcomes that expanded Democrats’ viable pickup opportunities.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Ринок відкрито: Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ET
Обсяг
$3,475Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest 2026 Senate toss-up at 55 percent implied probability, reflecting its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in a state Trump carried by under two points in 2024. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with Republican Mike Rogers following El-Sayed’s narrow August primary win, while Cook Political Report and other raters list the contest as a toss-up. Texas ranks second at 40 percent after Cook shifted the race to toss-up status amid tight surveys between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, aided by Talarico’s fundraising edge. Alaska, Maine, and Ohio trail as toss-ups due to stronger Republican structural leans or incumbency advantages for Dan Sullivan, Susan Collins, and Jon Husted, respectively, despite competitive polling and candidate matchups involving Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown. Iowa remains a longer shot. These probabilities track recent rating upgrades and primary outcomes that expanded Democrats’ viable pickup opportunities.
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the state, out of those listed, in which the Democratic Senate candidate earns the highest vote share percentage in the midterm election.
Vote share percentages will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes for each candidate by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
For elections that include runoffs, ranked-choice, or other multi-round elections, the relevant vote share will be that of the last-reported round containing a Democrat, and only non-exhausted ballots will be considered to be valid in that round. In the event that such a round contains multiple Democrats, this market will resolve in favor of the Democrat with the higher vote share.
If two vote shares are identical, this market will rank the tied states in alphabetical order.
In the event that the relevant vote share for a state cannot be determined by March 31, 2027, that state will not be considered for purposes of this market.
The resolution source for this market will be a compilation of all of the relevant state election authorities responsible for certifying statewide elections, however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Обсяг
$3,475Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Sep 2, 2026, 1:44 PM ETВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...Michigan leads trader consensus as Democrats’ strongest 2026 Senate toss-up at 55 percent implied probability, reflecting its open seat after Gary Peters’ retirement in a state Trump carried by under two points in 2024. Recent polling shows Democratic nominee Abdul El-Sayed competitive with Republican Mike Rogers following El-Sayed’s narrow August primary win, while Cook Political Report and other raters list the contest as a toss-up. Texas ranks second at 40 percent after Cook shifted the race to toss-up status amid tight surveys between Democrat James Talarico and Republican Ken Paxton, aided by Talarico’s fundraising edge. Alaska, Maine, and Ohio trail as toss-ups due to stronger Republican structural leans or incumbency advantages for Dan Sullivan, Susan Collins, and Jon Husted, respectively, despite competitive polling and candidate matchups involving Mary Peltola and Sherrod Brown. Iowa remains a longer shot. These probabilities track recent rating upgrades and primary outcomes that expanded Democrats’ viable pickup opportunities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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